Scholarship Numbers, Where We Stand, The Breakdown!

[LSUDad]

Shea does a great job breaking this down. 
 

LSU's Scholarship Numbers: The Present and Future

BySHEA DIXON Dec 8, 4:44 PM 

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The LSU football team was sitting around 75 scholarship players when fall camp began, a low number that head coach Ed Orgeron referenced multiple times this offseason given the attrition that came from the 2019 National Championship roster.

Fast forward a little more than three months, and the numbers have only grown more troublesome.

With No. 6 Florida on tap for Saturday in Gainesville, and a home game against Ole goldenshower likely to follow, the Tigers enter the final stretch of the 2020 season with 66 scholarship players.

The number doesn't include walk-ons who have been awarded a single-season scholarship, but rather just the full-time scholarship players who were labeled as an initial counter to a signing class. The NCAA allows a program to sign a maximum of 25 new players each season, whether that be a high school recruit, junior college prospect, or transfer from another program. The NCAA's scholarship limit is set at 85 players for each college program, which teams stay below through things like graduation, natural attrition, or early departures for the NFL Draft.

For Orgeron, the 66 scholarship players is a low number, and that's boosted a small amount by including kickoff specialist Avery Atkins and punter Zach Von Rosenberg as part of the total. Both were walk-ons who were not counted towards the 25-man limit in any signing class, but they're included here in the overall numbers given both are starters and leaned upon heavily as key pieces to the roster. Kicker Cade York and long snapper Quentin Skinner are also included in the numbers given both were full scholarship players and signed with the Tigers out of high school, with both counting towards the 25-man limit in the 2019 signing class for Orgeron.

How did the Tigers find themselves more than 20 players short of the NCAA's roster limit? Can the numbers turn around in one offseason? 

Here's the breakdown on where the scholarship numbers stand now, the recap on each name gone from the 2019 roster, and what it all means for the future as Orgeron tries to rebuild a championship team in Baton Rouge.

THE NFL DRAFT (20)

NFL Draft: 20 (11 seniors, 9 underclassmen) 

Underclassmen Departures for NFL Draft: (9) 

OLB K’Lavon Chaisson (Round 1) 

WR Justin Jefferson (Round 1) 

LB Patrick Queen (Round 1) 

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Round 1) 

S Grant Delpit (Round 2) 

C Lloyd Cushenberry (Round 3) 

LB Jacob Phillips (Round 3) 

OT Saahdiq Charles (Round 4) 

TE Thaddeus Moss (undrafted)

 

*** The NFL Draft hit LSU hard, with the Tigers tying the NFL Draft record with 14 players selected across the seven rounds of this offseason's draft. It was plenty of key pieces to the 15-0 season that culminated in a National Championship, highlighted at the top by No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow.

 

 

And a closer look at the numbers reveals the reality that there wasn't too much the Tigers could do when it came to convincing underclassmen to stick around. The Tigers set a school record by having five players selected in the first-round, and four were underclassmen. Three more underclassmen were selected in rounds two and three, and while Grant Delpit suffered a season-ending injury, both Lloyd Cushenberry and Jacob Phillips have logged NFL starts as rookies. Charles was in-and-out of LSU's lineup a year ago for a violation of team rules, and his departure saw him selected in the fourth round. The lone undrafted player from the crop of nine underclassmen to turn pro was Thaddeus Moss, who was battling through lingering injuries all season and was prepared to move on to the NFL Draft following stops at two colleges in four seasons. 

There have been plenty of hits to LSU's roster, and 20 names entering the NFL Draft pool at once will certainly sting. But, a healthy majority of the underclassmen who left after the perfect season had draft grades that supported the move, which isn't something that would result in the program being viewed through a negative lens. 

THE OFFSEASON DEPARTURES (10)

Left before the season: 10 

S Eric Monroe (transferred: Texas Tech) 

K Connor Culp (transferred: Nebraska) 

OT Donavaughn Campbell (transferred: Louisiana Tech) 

TE Jamal Pettigrew (transferred: McNeese State) 

DE Justin Thomas (transferred: UAB)

LB Marcel Brooks (transferred: TCU)

DE TK McLendon (transfer portal) 

QB Peter Parrish (suspended, transferred: Memphis)

LB Donte Starks (suspended, dismissed from team)

OT Jakori Savage (graduated, left with eligibility remaining)

There were 10 players who still had remaining eligibility, but left the program before the Tigers entered fall camp.

 

 

The offseason attrition hitting double-digits beyond the NFL Draft pool comes with a variety of reasons. Six of LSU's players landed in the transfer portal and onto other rosters ahead of the 2020 season. Defensive end TK McClendon's departure from the team just before fall camp kept him in the transfer portal without a current landing spot, while two other players were suspended for a violation of team rules, which led to quarterback Peter Parrish's decision to transfer to Memphis. Linebacker Donte Starks ran into academic hurdles following his suspension that resulted in him being dismissed from the program. Savage, who was a career backup for the Tigers on both sides of the line, had a year of eligibility remaining following the National Championship season, but he didn't return to the team this offseason. 

When circling the reasons the Tigers are sitting in the mid-60s with total scholarships, losing double-digit players here - albeit for a variety of reasons - certainly is worth circling. 

FALL CAMP LEADS TO FIRST "OPT OUTS"

This is when things began to unravel even more for the current roster.

Just ahead of the 2020 season, the NCAA announced no players would be docked a year of eligibility (more on that below). There also came word of "opt-outs", which originally served as a way players could choose not to participate in the 2020 season without being penalized, whether through eligibility or through the lens of the NFL. Top prospects from around the country who were considered likely high draft picks began to shut things down, and one of the biggest dominos was LSU wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase. 

Chase opted out on August 30, which was one week into fall camp and four weeks before the Tigers kicked off the season against Mississippi State.

One day later, defensive tackle Tyler Shelvin followed suit and opted-out of the 2020 season.

A little more than two weeks later, defensive back Kary Vincent Jr. opted out. All three of the aforementioned announced the decision by also revealing they were beginning to prepare for the NFL Draft and would not return to the team for the 2021 season.

Senior defensive lineman Neil Farrell briefly opted out, but later returned to the team before the season began. Defensive tackle Nelson Jenkins chose to opt out as well, but was the lone player who announced he would still return to the team in 2021, but would not take part in practices or games this fall. 

By the time the season began, Orgeron had already faced four opt-outs with only one planning to return to the team, and he had also juggled a player opting out only to then decide to opt back in. 

But fall camp would only turn into the beginning of the attrition the Tigers faced over the past 3-4 months.

 

 

PLAYERS WHO LEFT FROM FALL CAMP TO PRESENT DAY (9)

Left during fall camp to now: 9 

WR Ja'Marr Chase (opt out for NFL Draft) 

DT Tyler Shelvin (opt out for NFL Draft) 

CB Kary Vincent Jr. (opt out for NFL Draft) 

DT Nelson Jenkins (opt out, return in 2021)

OLB Ray Parker (suspended, dismissed from team)

DE Travez Moore (opt-out, transfer portal) 

DT Apu Ika (transfer portal)

WR Terrace Marshall Jr (opt out for NFL Draft)

TE Arik Gilbert (opt out, TBD)

The scholarship numbers were already low when LSU prepared for fall camp sitting in the mid-70s. Losing Chase, Shelvin, and Vincent to opt-out decisions just ahead of the season opener became only the tip of the iceberg.

 

 

 

Ray Parker was suspended on Sep. 10, just a few weeks ahead of the opener. He was later dismissed from the team.

On October 28, with the Tigers sitting at 2-2 ahead of the Auburn game, defensive tackle Siaki Ika entered the NCAA Transfer Portal.

"We recruited him to play in the 3-4 defense. But with the 4-3 scheme, we wanted more quickness there,” Orgeron said when asked about Ika's decision. “He was struggling a little bit. I wanted him to stay. He’s more of a 3-4 nose tackle. I think he can still have a heck of a career.”

One day later, defensive end Travez Moore elected to opt-out of the 2020 season and enter the NCAA Transfer Portal.

 

 

On November 29, with games against Alabama, Florida, and Ole goldenshower remaining, another big domino fell. Junior wide receiver Terrace Marshall, the team's leader in catches, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, chose to shut things down and begin preparations for the 2021 NFL Draft. 

On Monday, just nine days after Marshall's decision and in the 48 hours after a 38-point loss to No. 1 Alabama, freshman and former five-star Arik Gilbert met with Orgeron and revealed his decision to opt out of the final two games of the 2020 season.

It's unclear at this stage whether Gilbert plans to return to the team or enter the NCAA Transfer Portal, but he won't be part of practices or games moving forward this month.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS

The biggest question now isn't just who the Tigers sign in this class. That's important, but it's more important the Tigers sign a full class of 25 with players that can step into the two-deep and make up for the roster fallout. Even with 66 scholarship players on roster now, not every player is ready to see the field, and those same players might not be ready a season from now. That means more immediate help is needed by way of instant-impact freshmen and, likely, graduates transfers. Earlier this week, Orgeron said he planned to hold some scholarship spots within the 25-man class to use on the transfer market this offseason.

The bigger question: how does Orgeron and the staff do at recruiting inside the football operations building in Baton Rouge?

The 14 seniors will certainly be key to recruiting back to the roster, as to are all the different underclassmen who could entertain leaving early for the NFL Draft, which likely includes names like offensive linemen Ed Ingram and Dare Rosenthal. Orgeron will also have to keep a tight grip on players deciding to transfer by taking advantage of the NCAA's one-time, penalty-free move. That means a player could leave LSU's roster this offseason, play on another team's roster in the fall, and the Tigers wouldn't be able to get back that scholarship number.

"I wish they gave us more, but they don't," Orgeron said this week when asked about roster management during the era of the transfer portal. "We have 25 (new signees allowed), that's it. Just because a guy opts out, you don't gain another initial. That's what it makes it tough to get your roster back to 85.

"It's not my call, but hopefully in the future the NCAA changes the rule to where you can have more initials, depending on guys opting out, juniors going to the draft early, to get your roster back to 85."

Getting back to 85 scholarship players will be the goal for Orgeron, but it's likely a two-year rebuild between the 2021 and 2022 classes.

For reference, if LSU loses 10 players to the draft, transfer or dismissal this offseason, the Tigers would enter next season right at 81 scholarship players, which is the most the Tigers are allowed to have with the self-imposed sanctions. But that number could balloon beyond just 10 players gone from the roster, which means it's very likely LSU goes through the 2020 season with a scholarship total in the 70s. 

If the offseason goes awry and there is an exodus beyond 10 players, or injuries occur at some point between now and the end of the 2021 season, the staff could be back into the low-70s or upper-60s with the scholarship total as they work through the 2021 season. 

Closing out the 2021 recruiting class strong with 25 signees is certainly a must, but Orgeron and Co.'s ability to re-recruit the current roster will be just as paramount.

Edited December 11, 2020 by LSUDad