Jump to content
Gameday Tigers

2020 season CFP Playoff (probabilities/ possibilities / ponderings)


Nutriaitch

Recommended Posts

Ok, so going into the final weekend, here is your teams with even a snowballs chance of getting in:

1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Clemson
4. Ohio State
5. Texas A&M
6. Iowa State

 

teams that need a ridiculous miracle, but aren't quite eliminated just yet:

7. Florida
9. Cincinnati
10. Oklahoma 

 

teams that are straight up getting firetrucked and no amount of chaos gets them in despite deserving to be in one of the above categories:

12. Coastal Carolina
13. Southern Cal
14. Northwestern

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Starting from bottom:

Northwestern is 6-1 and in the Big Ten title game. They are there without needing a rules change to make them eligible.  With a win, they will have more wins, higher winning % and head to head against tOSU, plus a conference title.  But there is NO WAY they jumping 10 spots.  Just not happening.

USCw.  Sitting at 5-0 (same as tOSU) and in their conference championship game. they haven't played anyone worth a damn though and part of that is their conference not doing the right thing and finding a way for them to play Colorado last week.  But again, too far behind pack to have a shot.

Coastal Carolina.  Biggest screw job in country this season.   11-0. wins against 2 teams in current top 20. That's more than Clemson and tOSU combined if you're counting at home. And they don't get to play for their conference CG (and a 3rd win against top 20) due to Covid. So they have to share a title with a team that is not undefeated, because THEY ALREADY BEAT THEM.  No, they don't belong in playoff discussion, but god damn, they deserve to be in a higher category than this one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

next grouping 

Oklahoma:  do not need as big of a miracle as the rest, but they need help.  2 losses but can win the conference.  History is not on their side though. OU needs:  a Clemson loss, an A&M loss, probably a tOSU loss, and they themselves need to win convincingly.

 

Cincinnati:  I don't see any way they get in unless some really crazy shyte goes down.  Clemson, tOSU, A&M, Florida all need to get blown completely off the field. Oklahoma would also need to win but do so very sloppily.  Even if all of this happens they probably get no higher than 5.

 

Florida:  Have to kick the living dogshit out of Alabama. We're talking 3-4 touchdown victor here. they may still need A&M and Clemson to both lose.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

top tier and (obviously easiest paths).

Iowa State. beat Oklahoma. preferably by 2 scores. A&M and either Clemson or tOSU needs a loss. the A&M loss may not be necessary for them, but it would absolutely help.

 

Texas A&M:  probably best chance of those currently sitting outside the top 4.
Need either a Clemson loss, or Notre Dame losing in a blowout.  Either of the above could get them in without any other domino falling. But for them to breather easier, they absolutely need Alabama to win, and an ugly OU win in the Big XII game, and a tOSU loss (Big Ten CG game may not matter to them though).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sitting in Captain's chair.

Alabama: simple. don't not get blown the fornicate out.  Literally any other end result and you're in.  period.

Notre Dame: win and you're in.  probably still in with a close loss, but no guarantees. Committee will say your regular season win vs Clemson was due to Sunshine being out, so you can't chance it.  

Clemson:  in with a win. out with a loss.  that simple. score is not relevant.

 

tOSU: this one is interesting.  on the surface, a win gets them in. but....not so fast.  what if it's ugly? what if a controversial call helps them down stretch?  does the committee then penalize them for the lack of games?  hell if i know, but the media is already starting to beat that drum a little and planting that doubt. so i think they have to win handily.  like 14-17 points or so, maybe even a little bit more.    the one thing in their favor is Alabama has already absolutely spanked Aggy, so committee may not give them that rematch in round 1.  A Clemson loss (or a ND blowout loss) would be a HUGE favor to the Buckeyes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, dachsie said:

I just dont think tOSU deserves to be in due to lack of games.  But I also hope Clemson loses - Fabio needs to lose.  LOL

while i understand that thought process, i also don’t think A&M (as an example) should get in because a school in a completely different region had 3 games cancelled and not rescheduled either. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Hatchertiger said:

Without 22 players? They will know how we felt this year! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Hatchertiger said:

Easy...85 on scholly, that brings em to 63, which is about 10 more than we started the UF game with and 15 more than we finished it with lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, houtiger said:

Aggies easily handled the Vols, I don't see how A&M does not make it to the playoff.  They have one loss, to #1 InbredGumps.  They played 10 SEC games.

their one loss and Notre Dame’s one loss will be viewed very similarly. 

Alabama 
Clemson
tOSU
Notre Dame

is my prediction 

 

and the “10 SEC games” doesn’t carry the weight it once did. 

ND has wins against 2 teams in top 15. 
A&M has one. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Nutriaitch said:

their one loss and Notre Dame’s one loss will be viewed very similarly. 

Alabama 
Clemson
tOSU
Notre Dame

is my prediction 

 

and the “10 SEC games” doesn’t carry the weight it once did. 

ND has wins against 2 teams in top 15. 
A&M has one. 

Nootch was correct

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, dachsie said:

Yea, people are pretty pissed here

oh well. 

if they took of the “SEC, SEC, SEC” goggles for a moment they would have seen this coming from miles away. 

 

despite playing 3 more games, they have fewer quality wins than tOSU and no conference title.

and then they can’t complain about number of games played then say they belong in over ND. 
the Irish played 2 more games than the Aggies. 

them and ND resumes are very similar  
except ND has a win against a top 5 team and another top 20 team as well.

Aggy has a win against Florida and really nothing else to brag about.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...