You design the contract of the new LSU head football coach

[Nutriaitch]

1 hour ago, houtiger said:

You are not looking at apples to apples.  You cannot compare a 4 year deal to a six or eight or ten year deal.

I'm comparing your contract to the ones being offered by other schools.

Which is pretty much exactly what our next head coach is currently doing as well.

 

1 hour ago, houtiger said:

My 10 mil a year base is designed based on the ESPN salaries noted above.  If that moves based on the market, my number would move so I always offer a significantly higher salary, with significant bonus incentives (actually outstanding), with a clawback for losing 4 or more games a year (not counting bowl games), and a shorter term with the understanding that you will be extended assuming you are performing well.  Of course if you turn out to be a dog, there won't be an extension, that is a risk you have to take in order to take advantage of the higher pay I am offering.  So, its a performance based deal.  Are you a champion, or a dog?

 

 

the market says $90 mil guaranteed is the new floor.
want proof?
2 top level power 5 schools have given extensions in last few months. Both coincidentally were (reportedly) on our list.
Both got $95 million (Tucker's is not official yet).

 

You're kidding yourself if you don't think OU is going to be willing to make Riley the 3rd guy on that list.

rinse and repeat until you get low enough on your candidate list to be in your price range.

 

 

 

 

 

[houtiger]

1 hour ago, Nutriaitch said:

I'm comparing your contract to the ones being offered by other schools.

Which is pretty much exactly what our next head coach is currently doing as well.

No, it is NOT what a bright coach would do, at least it is not ALL that a bright coach would do.  A bright coach is going to compare a probably six year income to another six year income and make a decision, because you don't expect to roll over and die in 4 years.

At any rate, a 40 mil 4 year deal is better than a 45 mil six year deal.  You will get 2 more years somewhere and you have to assess what your six year earnings probably would be.

But I guarantee you I'd take the 40 mil in 4 years (and possibly a couple two or three mil more) over 45 mil in six years, any day of the week.

Edited November 19, 2021 by houtiger

[Nutriaitch]

54 minutes ago, houtiger said:

No, it is NOT what a bright coach would do, at least it is not ALL that a bright coach would do.  A bright coach is going to compare a probably six year income to another six year income and make a decision, because you don't expect to roll over and die in 4 years.

At any rate, a 40 mil 4 year deal is better than a 45 mil six year deal.  You will get 2 more years somewhere and you have to assess what your six year earnings probably would be.

But I guarantee you I'd take the 40 mil in 4 years (and possibly a couple two or three mil more) over 45 mil in six years, any day of the week.

wonderful  

but you keep ignoring the main point in all of this.

How do you convince a guy to take that deal when all of your competition is going to give him possibly DOUBLE the amount you’re offering?

 

• A&M already gave Jimbo $95 million (likely in anticipation of LSU gig opening). 
• Saban’s deal in above $90 millionin total compensation. 
• Dabo’s deal is $93 million total dollars. 
• Mel Tucker is (reportedly) getting $95 million total. 
• Lincoln Riley will almost assuredly get a $90+ million deal this off-season somewhere (either here or OU)

3 of those 5 are (or at least will be) already directly related to the LSU opening. 

 

[houtiger]

4 hours ago, Nutriaitch said:

wonderful  

but you keep ignoring the main point in all of this.

How do you convince a guy to take that deal when all of your competition is going to give him possibly DOUBLE the amount you’re offering?

• A&M already gave Jimbo $95 million (likely in anticipation of LSU gig opening). 
• Saban’s deal in above $90 millionin total compensation. 
• Dabo’s deal is $93 million total dollars. 
• Mel Tucker is (reportedly) getting $95 million total. 
• Lincoln Riley will almost assuredly get a $90+ million deal this off-season somewhere (either here or OU)

3 of those 5 are (or at least will be) already directly related to the LSU opening.

You show him he will out earn all of those deals in the first 4 years at LSU, and ask him to make a reasonable assumption about what the rest of the years would be.  If necessary, you could add a mid contract renewal for an additional 4 years, at a 20% raise, subject to the approval of the athletic director.  The only reason I would do that is if the industry standard has moved to a ten year deal, I may have to deal with that, so a 5 year initial term and a 5 year re-up subject to approval.

If I did that, this LSU deal would blow away all the others, and LSU would not end up on the hook to pay a coach that is not working out, for five or six years of him not coaching here.

We all think it is dumb to give O 16 mil to leave.  Much of that problem was Woodward giving him a new six year deal after winning the natty.  So how do you prevent LSU from getting back in that situation.  We were in it with Les, and got back in it again with O.  It's not just LSU, lot's of universities are paying coaches not to coach.  There has to be a better way.  You pay him more up front, maybe a lot more, but keep the duration shorter.  If the coach does well, he will get extended.  If he doesn't do well, you're not on the hook for the long term.  It should work out well for both parties.   If a coach believes in himself, he'll take the higher money over a guaranteed lower amount.

[Nutriaitch]

8 hours ago, houtiger said:

You show him he will out earn all of those deals in the first 4 years at LSU, and ask him to make a reasonable assumption about what the rest of the years would be.  If necessary, you could add a mid contract renewal for an additional 4 years, at a 20% raise, subject to the approval of the athletic director.  The only reason I would do that is if the industry standard has moved to a ten year deal, I may have to deal with that, so a 5 year initial term and a 5 year re-up subject to approval.

If I did that, this LSU deal would blow away all the others, and LSU would not end up on the hook to pay a coach that is not working out, for five or six years of him not coaching here.

NINETY MILLION

every single penny of it guaranteed no matter what. 

 

8 hours ago, houtiger said:

We all think it is dumb to give O 16 mil to leave.

i thought it was dumb to give ED ORGERON a deal like that.

ED ORGERON was never worth that money.
and no other school in the history of this planet would have ever given it to HIM.

Lincoln Riley? yes
Matt Rhule? damn right
Aranda? can prolly get him a little cheaper than that.
Mel Tucker? well you see his price tag
We some how land Tomlin? worth every goddam penny. 

 

 

 

 

 

[houtiger]

3 hours ago, Nutriaitch said:

NINETY MILLION

every single penny of it guaranteed no matter what.

Versus a shot at 100 or 110 million, if you're willing to take some risk on your own back.  An extra 10 or 20 mil over ten years is not chicken feed.

If you know you are good, you are willing to put that risk on your back, confident you will succeed and make that higher income.

If you know your latest successful gig had a lot of luck in it, you're not that confident that your can reproduce it over the long haul, by all means you would take the lower guaranteed amount.

What do you think Nick Saban would do if he faced that choice at the age of 50?  He'd take the challenge and he'd try to optimize the money.

Now obviously, it is not always just about the money.  Family comes in, long standing ties like your alma mater.

[Nutriaitch]

1 hour ago, houtiger said:

Versus a shot at 100 or 110 million, if you're willing to take some risk on your own back.  An extra 10 or 20 mil over ten years is not chicken feed.

you gonna risk upwards of $40mil for the chance to make an extra 5?

im glad you’re not my agent. 

1 hour ago, houtiger said:

If you know you are good, you are willing to put that risk on your back, confident you will succeed and make that higher income.

If you know you are good, you can demand a guaranteed income on a long term deal. 

you know like Saban, Dabo, Jimbo, Tucker, etc all did and Riley will do very soon. 

1 hour ago, houtiger said:

What do you think Nick Saban would do if he faced that choice at the age of 50?  He'd take the challenge and he'd try to optimize the money.

considering at around 50 years old he left us for a stupid large guaranteed sum of money that he REQUESTED, i know exactly what he would choose. 

 

[houtiger]

1 hour ago, Nutriaitch said:

you gonna risk upwards of $40mil for the chance to make an extra 5?

im glad you’re not my agent. 

If you know you are good, you can demand a guaranteed income on a long term deal. 

you know like Saban, Dabo, Jimbo, Tucker, etc all did and Riley will do very soon. 

considering at around 50 years old he left us for a stupid large guaranteed sum of money that he REQUESTED, i know exactly what he would choose. 

 

If you're really that good, it is not much of a risk.  You're going to keep coaching.  The upside more than justifies the risk if you have the goods.  If you don't, take the long term deal.  It's up to the coach, not the agent, to call the shot.

As far as Saban, etc. locking up long term deals, it is only because no AD has gotten more innovative and offered a chance at more money, significantly more money, for taking a little risk.  These guys don't appear that bright, the AD's.  They hire coaches to deals that many times they wish they were not in, but they put themselves in that box with no good way out.

Now, if you want an option to get out of a deal by offering a shorter contract, then you have to pay to buy that option.  I do puts and calls (options) in the stock market, and you pay to buy an option, and you collect when you sell an option to someone else.

Let's say you pay 2 mil a year extra for 5 years, that's 10 mil premium for the option to separate.  But if the coach gets a divorce and his mind in not on football and the program is suffering, if you want him out after 5 years, that costs near 50 mil on a (10 mil a year/10 year deal).  A 10 mil premium for an option to avoid a 50 mil mistake is a good deal.  If the coach has the goods, its good for the coach and good for the school.

[LSUDad]

Not a great time to be looking for a Head Coach, like there’s a good time. Like everything in the US, prices keep going up! 
 

Woody will pay, get his man. We will be happy. 

[Nutriaitch]

Hou, put it to you like this. 

this has been tried before. But with a player instead of a coach. 

and the player didn’t come anywhere maxing out the deal. so despite being a top 5 pick that was highly sought after, he didn’t get paid like one. 

No player has ever signed such ridiculousness again, and his agent lost all of his clientele. 

ADs don’t offer it because people won’t sign it. 

Coaches sign deals that are beneficial to THEM, not to the school. 

 

[houtiger]

OK, that was the Ricky Williams contract with the Saints.

There are two issues why a player will not take that kind of contract anymore.

1. The player does not control his playing time, the COACH does.  If you don't control your playing time, you have no control over your ability to hit performance milestones, like yards gained or touchdowns scored.

2. The player has no control over being injured.  It just happens, and then the player is in a situation where through no fault of his own, he is not making money.

It is obviously a bad deal for a player, unless you somehow remedy the conditions above in the contract.

A coach is going to coach every game except in very rare circumstances, and coaches don't get injured very much either.

So what clearly does not work for a player, none of those reasons exist for a coach.

[houtiger]

I looked up Ricky Williams to see what he is doing now, apparently he is a CEO of a small pot company.  He seems happy.

https://www.si.com/nfl/video/2021/07/06/ricky-williams-marijuana-astrology-highsman

 

[Nutriaitch]

2 hours ago, houtiger said:

I looked up Ricky Williams to see what he is doing now, apparently he is a CEO of a small pot company.  He seems happy.

https://www.si.com/nfl/video/2021/07/06/ricky-williams-marijuana-astrology-highsman

 

that is SO fitting 

[Nutriaitch]

2 hours ago, houtiger said:

 

2. The player has no control over being injured.  It just happens, and then the player is in a situation where through no fault of his own, he is not making money.

 

 

What coach has control of injuries?

go look at just our injured kids this year:

Starting QB
Best WR in the entire conference (went multiple games with top 3 all out)
Went multiple games with only former walk-on Josh Williams healthy behind our starting RB.
3 starting OL
3 starting DL (2 were at all SEC level, and one is a future All-American)
2 all american CB (multiple games we were down 4 of the 5 starters in the secondary)

 

no coach in America is maxing out an incentive based deal with that list of injuries all in the same year.

so due to circumstances beyond his control, he's now playing against a stacked deck and has to take a smaller paycheck because of it.

OR 

a coach can do like all of the top tier coaches do.
sign a ridiculously large contract that pays you the full amount as long as you show up to the athletic building wearing school colors every day.

[Nutriaitch]

Dan Mullen likely just slammed the final nail into his own coffin yesterday.

the price of our next Head Coach likely just went up.

[houtiger]

The top quality coaches recruit well every year.  When injuries hit, they send in a quality backup, usually a 4* or maybe a freshman 5*.  Their season is not wrecked.

How many 3 loss seasons has Gumps had in the last 10 years?  None.  Kirby Smart at Ga., one in seven years, his first at Ga.  Ohio St., none in 10 years across Meyer and Day.  Brian Kelly at ND has lost at least 3 games five times in 10 years, is that due to injuries or failure to recruit well enough?  And losing 3 games would not cost the coach a dime under my plan, you don't lose a check until the fourth loss.

Injuries happen on all teams, and they may cost a top team a conf. championship because they lose to the top rival they have to beat for the crown, but it does not typically derail the whole season.  It has not derailed LSU's season, although it certainly did not help.  I'd like to have Myles Brenna, Ali Gaye, Derek Stingley, Eli Ricks, Kayshon Boutte, John Emery (grades), Andre Anthony, Major Burns, and Sage Ryan (who has made it back), and a few others.  But we still had a shot to beat Gumps.  And regardless of injuries, the AD has decided the major problem with the season comes from the coaching staff and has chosen to replace them, so it wasn't just the injuries.

And if the injury bug did bite this bad, the worst the coach was going to do was 8.2 mil.  If you look at it realistically, the injury bug is not an impediment to a coach taking the deal.  It's not going to happen often, not even close.

[Nutriaitch]

3 minutes ago, houtiger said:

you don't lose a check until the fourth loss.

 

under the offer from every other AD in America, you don't lose a check until ... oh wait, you never ever lose one.

[Nutriaitch]

and how Florida is open. 

you gonna let an annual opponent out bid you for your guy (if they interested in same person)?

[Nutriaitch]

Ou will be in SEC very soon 
We already play Florida every single year  

so, hypothetical for you Hou:

just throwing out names, not saying these are or aren’t THE names involved. 

LSU, FU, and OU all have same top 3 targets. 

Riley (OU wants to keep, LSU and FU want to steal)
Kiffin (all 3 schools second choice)
Napier (all 3 schools 3rd choice)

 

do you

A. risk losing your top choice and have to potentially play against him every single year by offering him a risk/reward deal. 

B. sit back and counter the offer from other schools and risk still not getting him because you waited. 

C. set the new bar for coaches, have the presser announcing your top choice and leave your rivals scrambling for backup plans. 

 

 

im taking C. 

every single time. no hesitation. 

[houtiger]

On 11/21/2021 at 10:26 AM, Nutriaitch said:

under the offer from every other AD in America, you don't lose a check until ... oh wait, you never ever lose one.

If you are not at LSU, then you lose about 100K per game you win at another school.  The whole idea in my contract scheme is you pay a higher amount each year, in return for a shorter contract.  You can always give an extension if the performance warrants it.  And you can avoid a silly buyout of a long term contract.  It costs the univ. a bit more up front, but can save a bundle if a long term deal does not work out.

[houtiger]

On 11/21/2021 at 2:37 PM, Nutriaitch said:

and how Florida is open. 

you gonna let an annual opponent out bid you for your guy (if they interested in same person)?

Of course not, why would you say that?  Clearly the dollar figure is set by the market place.  I looked at a list of top coaches and came up with 8 mil a year as a top flight average, and set my initial offer at 10 mil a year.  Obviously if the market moves significantly in this hiring cycle, then the 10 mil figure has to move up.  I wanted to be 25% over market, for a shorter deal, originally I said 4 years, but 5 would work also.  I would try to avoid anything 8 years or over.

[houtiger]

On 11/21/2021 at 8:02 PM, Nutriaitch said:

Ou will be in SEC very soon 
We already play Florida every single year  

so, hypothetical for you Hou:

just throwing out names, not saying these are or aren’t THE names involved. 

LSU, FU, and OU all have same top 3 targets. 

Riley (OU wants to keep, LSU and FU want to steal)
Kiffin (all 3 schools second choice)
Napier (all 3 schools 3rd choice)

 

do you

A. risk losing your top choice and have to potentially play against him every single year by offering him a risk/reward deal. 

B. sit back and counter the offer from other schools and risk still not getting him because you waited. 

C. set the new bar for coaches, have the presser announcing your top choice and leave your rivals scrambling for backup plans. 

 

 

im taking C. 

every single time. no hesitation. 

If I'm willing to offer 25% more each year on a shorter deal, how do you figure that increases my risk of losing my  top choice.  You need to sell the guy that it is the best deal out there, because it is.  You tell him to bring his financial advisor and you bring yours and show him how good the deal is.

[Nutriaitch]

 

8 hours ago, houtiger said:

And you can avoid a silly buyout of a long term contract.

avoid the thing that these coaches demand the most?

yeah that’s gonna land your top guy.

 

8 hours ago, houtiger said:

If I'm willing to offer 25% more each year on a shorter deal, how do you figure that increases my risk of losing my  top choice.  You need to sell the guy that it is the best deal out there, because it is.  You tell him to bring his financial advisor and you bring yours and show him how good the deal is.

Hey Mr. Financial advisor, this guy is giving me an absolute guarantee of $95 million. No questions asked.  
This other guy wants me to sign an incentive based deal. Might be more per year, but would need an extension or two to get up to full amount of guaranteed deal. 

 

Financial Advisor: only a moron would pass up the guaranteed deal in the coaching profession. ESPECIALLY in the SEC where going into next season, on 2 guys will be going into their 4th (or longer) season and one bad year gets you fired after 3 straight NY6 bowl seasons. 

 

[houtiger]

15 hours ago, Nutriaitch said:

 

avoid the thing that these coaches demand the most?

yeah that’s gonna land your top guy.

 

Hey Mr. Financial advisor, this guy is giving me an absolute guarantee of $95 million. No questions asked.  
This other guy wants me to sign an incentive based deal. Might be more per year, but would need an extension or two to get up to full amount of guaranteed deal. 

 

Financial Advisor: only a moron would pass up the guaranteed deal in the coaching profession. ESPECIALLY in the SEC where going into next season, on 2 guys will be going into their 4th (or longer) season and one bad year gets you fired after 3 straight NY6 bowl seasons. 

 

They demand it because they have not seen a better offer, one that has been demonstrated to them as a better offer.  Money has time value.  Getting significantly higher payments earlier, they can be invested and add to the total take. 

[Nutriaitch]

10 hours ago, houtiger said:

They demand it because they have not seen a better offer, one that has been demonstrated to them as a better offer. 

they demand it because 1 bad season can get you fired.  And other than Saban, basically every other human on the planet has had a bad season in the last decade or so.  And i’ll go out on a limb and say every single one will also have one in the next decade  

so great, you made $10 each of your first 3 years. 

then year 4 you made 8 and got canned. 

so you made $38 million.

it’s been a long time since i had a math class, but i think 38 is still below 95.

NOBODY in their right mind is taking that big of a gamble to make an extra 2 million today.