Film Study: LSU vs Auburn ... 2022 (QB Breakdown)

[Nutriaitch]

i'm going to watch the skycam view of the game and try to break down Daniels' game vs Auburn.

will post screen shots and my thoughts on plays that stick out to me.

 

only watched 1st offensive play (so far), and it's pretty bad.

 

 

 

He has Boutte (red circle) for a potentially HUGE play if ball is leaving his hand toward Red "X" at this point.
#10 (deepest defender to left) is the safety going over to help on sideline, so Boutte has a shyte ton of green grass in front of him.
#32 is a linebacker following Wiliams out of backfield and is a few yards shallower than Boutte is and moving toward camera, so gap is widening.

also likely has about 10 yards to Brian Thomas Jr (orange circle) if he's already released throwing to Orange "X". 
#0 is a linebacker keying on Williams no way in hell he makes a play on a pass to Thomas

and slightly more risky, but he also has Taylor (LSU Gold circle) if he throws to Gold "X".
#6 is a corner playing Zone, but is already vacating his territory and is breaking hard to our left reading JD's eye.

and finally, while Williams (purple circle) looks open in this view, he would have been absolutely decapitated by #0 if Daniels throws him a catchable ball.

 

Daniels kept it and ran for no gain.

[houtiger]

Not looking good so far, and interesting.  Kelly looks frustrated at times with Daniels decisions.  I am sure they are trying to coach him up, but he may be trying to break years of bad habits.  Wonder if he's had an eye exam.

[Nutriaitch]

7 minutes ago, houtiger said:

Not looking good so far, and interesting.  Kelly looks frustrated at times with Daniels decisions.  I am sure they are trying to coach him up, but he may be trying to break years of bad habits.  Wonder if he's had an eye exam.

my guess is that all offseason Kelly stressed "protect the ball" and "no turnovers" and he's taking that to the extreme.
meaning it's no so much that he doesn't "see" them. it's that he's not taking the risk if the guy isn't ridiculously open.

[Nutriaitch]

also going to give credit where credit is due in this thread.

2nd Possession ; 1st and 10 at the 25 (2 previous plays were runs by Williams)

 

DB was step for step with Malik and at time JD steps to throw was damn near close enough to touch him.
but Malik stops on the comeback and Daniels (properly) throws it behind him.  And as you can see, JD has already released the ball before Nabers was finished his break.
Pick up 9 on the play.

this is a good example of what he needs to do more of.
He has to trust himself and his receivers and attempt more passes like this one.  Have to pull the trigger while route is developing rather than wait until it's already developed.

Will he likely throw a few picks doing this? yes, he will.
But he will also throw for more than 80 freaking yards in a game.

 

 

[Nutriaitch]

OH. MY. GOD!!!

same possession ; 2 plays later ; 1st and 10

 

i'm actually a frame or two late on this screen grab (couldn't seem to time it up correctly)

Malik Nabers is in the gold circle.
a step prior to this pic, his head is already spinning to backfield to look for the ball.

the linebacker (near red arrow pointing to the right), repeat linebacker, is running towards our right and is about 5 yards deeper than Nabers.
the safety (near red arrow pointing left) is running towards us and to our left to double Boutte

if he hits Malik right as he turns to look, there is not a single person wearing blue that is catching him. nobody.
score should be 7-7 right here.

 

Edit to Add: result of play was Daniels kept it for no gain.

[Nutriaitch]

couple plays later (on same possession), is an example of a good "keep"

 

Jaray Jenkins is "open" on the scramble drill. He's running back towards us and the sideline.

sure, JD can throw it to him. But he can also keep for similar yardage.

result of the play: Daniels keeps for 11 yard gain and first down.

[Nutriaitch]

still on same possession, couple plays later.  another good read.

 

Brian Thomas Jr is still in middle of his break. Daniels spots it and releases.
problem is that he air mailed it over BTJ's head.  but the read was absolutely correct and an accurate pass results in a big play.  Hell Thomas might even make the single high safety miss.

 

[Nutriaitch]

very next play:

Safety (orange arrow) is running toward our right.

Boutte (gold circle) has a TD if he pulls trigger a step before this screen grab.
Brian Thomas Jr. (purple circle) just passed his defender has a TD if he throws to him now.
Mason Taylor (blue circle) is all alone behind the zone. probably doesn't out run everyone to endzone, but still a big gain if he catches it.
Josh Williams (red circle) is the safety valve who is about 2 yards shy of the first down, but plenty enough room to gain those yards on the dump off.

result of play, JD continues scrambling to his right, then finally throws deep down sideline. BTJ makes great grab but lands out of bounds, forcing us to punt.

[Nutriaitch]

multiple plays where just nobody was open.

 

[Nutriaitch]

ok. I can't speak for everyone.
but for me personally, when i say "Daniels needs to take more chances", this is what i mean.

couple possession later ; mid 2nd qtr ; down by 3 scores

 

Kashon Boutte (Purple circle) has inside separation and has his man torched
Malik Nabers already has a step on his guy on a post/cross
Single High safety (orange rectangle) is doing a good job hovering in his zone, and is slowly trending toward Boutte.

JD has to have the confidence to take one of these shots right here.
with a good (not amazing, just good) throw, both guys can make big plays.

yes, that safety absolutely can make a play on a terrible throw to Malik.
And maybe with an All-American effort could possibly make one on a decent pass to Boutte, but I'm giving Boutte the advantage on a 50/50 ball (good throw is like 80/20, not 50/50)

you have got to pull this trigger right here.  

Result of play: Daniels scrambles to his right, keeps it and fumbles out of bounds for a loss of 2.
note: Nabers actually stumbles slightly in the next frame, so probably would have been incomplete if he threw to him. But this is about right read, and there would be no way of knowing that at time of release.

[Nutriaitch]

excellent read. inaccurate pass.

this is the one where he threw it behind Nabers (gold circle). catchable? yes, but was absolutely behind him.
posting screen grab to show that an accurate pass likely goes for 6

 

safety is 10 yards deeper than Malik at time ball is released. and by time ball hits Nabers hands (behind him)

you can see Nabers had him beat toward middle of field.

lead him and this is a TD.

 

 

 

[Nutriaitch]

I said before this breakdown, but i'm even more convinced now.

Malik Nabers is the BEST wide receiver on this football team.
he beats his coverage on every damn snap.

 

Here, even though pocket wasn't collapsing just yet, Daniels has already tucked and committed to running.
if he keeps his eyes down field, Nabers (gold cirlce) has just split the defenders and is open with a seam to gain big yardage (with only one guy to beat for HUGE gain).

result of play: Daniels rushed for a gain of 2.

[Nutriaitch]

another shot that should have been taken.

Kyren Lacy just finished his break and his guy is beat. 
Lead him toward sideline to where only he can get it.  It's either a gain of about 20, or it's an incomplete pass.

result of play: Daniels rolls all the way to right and throws it away .

[Nutriaitch]

not going to lie ... this is getting frustrating to watch.

Kyren Lacy (gold circle) just beat his man, lead him and it's a TD.
Kashon Boutte (purple circle) is taking the safety with him away from the play.

Result of play: Daniels leaves pocket and throw it away into the 4th row.

note: Daniels had time to make a damn sandwich on this play.  Ball was snapped between 0:50 &  0:49.  as you can see, there is 0:46 at this point, and he doesn't leave pocket until clock is switching from 0:45 to 0:44. 
That is forking lifetime in a clean pocket. 

[Nutriaitch]

great screen grab here:

Malik Nabers (gold circle) once again has his guy beat for what would be a huge gain.
John Emery Jr (purple circle) is also open on the wheel route.

couple things:
Malik is clearing out the sideline by having his guy follow him.
Which means that John Emery is the correct read. 
and this views gives a great look at how good the pass was as he floated it over the Linebacker (#0) leaping reach.

result of play: 39 yard catch and run by Emery. Our longest offensive play of the night.

 

 

[Nutriaitch]

So, made it halftime.

25 plays where a pass was called.

In my opinion 7 of those were poor reads (mostly just not pulling the trigger). 

28% is a number that is just too damn high

 

[houtiger]

That's a lot of work, and fine work there Nootch!  Thanks for the effort.  It brings into clarity what we "think" we were seeing.

[Nutriaitch]

And now i'm already to point where Nussmeier entered the game.

nothing really of note on any of Daniels' passes in the 3rd quarter.

 

 

[Nutriaitch]

1 minute ago, houtiger said:

That's a lot of work, and fine work there Nootch!  Thanks for the effort.  It brings into clarity what we "think" we were seeing.

thanks for the feedback sir.
was hoping i wasn't just wasting my time and Herb's bandwidth 

i guess since I'm already in 4th quarter, I'll just keep going and see if anything catches my attention with Nuss.

[Nutriaitch]

Fish gonna hate this one.

 

Nuss has plenty of time in a nice clean pocket.
Jack Bech (gold circle) is just finishing his cut and is wide effing open for a huge gain on the deep corner route.

Nuss pulled the trigger a little to early and went with the more difficult pass to Brian Thomas on sideline.

result of play: Nuss one hopped it to BTJ. incomplete

 

 

[Nutriaitch]

not related to our QB's, but here is Greg Brooks (gold circle) taking what he wants from Koy Moore

[houtiger]

Greg Brooks!

Joins teammate Joe Foucha as Arkansas transfers joining the Tigers in 2022 … Three-year starter in the secondary for the Razorbacks from 2019-21 … Appeared 34 games at Arkansas, starting 31 times … Recorded 112 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss … In coverage, broke up 12 passes and had four interceptions … Native of Harvey, La., and prepped at West Jefferson High School … Helped turnaround an Arkansas program that didn’t win a conference game in 2019 to winning nine games, including a victory over Penn State in the Outback Bowl, in 2021.

[houtiger]

I heard Nuss was 2 of 6 passing, but had 2 drops.  I thought he played well, he didn't throw much, because Kelly wanted to run the clock down so they kept the ball on the ground.  Not a pretty win, but a win is a win, especially on the road at Auburn.

[LSUDad]

Everything you are seeing, the staff is seeing.

1 hour ago, Nutriaitch said:

thanks for the feedback sir.
was hoping i wasn't just wasting my time and Herb's bandwidth 

Speaking of bandwidth, why can’t I post pictures? Every picture is over the 5.01kB. But videos are not? 

[houtiger]

24 minutes ago, LSUDad said:

Everything you are seeing, the staff is seeing.

Speaking of bandwidth, why can’t I post pictures? Every picture is over the 5.01kB. But videos are not? 

I'm not sure what is going on, but LSUDad, you probably have a modern phone taking pictures, lot of megapixels means high resolution and lot of data to store.  Nootch is doing a screen copy, the resolution is not super high, so he has a smaller file size for his picture.  That's how the file size is arrived at.

This file is 3.1 megabytes size, taken a few years back with an iPhone 7.

I went to Windows explorer, found the file, and dragged it to the post.

Edited October 6, 2022 by houtiger