How long should it take for Brian Kelly to build a sound team, from Jan. 2022?

[houtiger]

Serious question.  We had 39 scholarship players, played the bowl game with a WR at QB so Nuss could preserve his redshirt (Kelly probably approved that move, more important to keep Nuss an extra year that win a meaningless bowl game).  After the game we had zero CB going into 2022 season and one nickel back (Sage Ryan).

2022 was an excellent coaching achievement.  But the two starting CB both left after one year.

I don't think 3 years is unreasonable to say we are back on an even keel, with talent coming up each year to keep the program on a consistent level.

Discuss.

[Nutriaitch]

before I can give a serious answer, I'll need you to define "sound team"

[Nutriaitch]

9 minutes ago, houtiger said:

 Nuss could preserve his redshirt (Kelly probably approved that move, more important to keep Nuss an extra year that win a meaningless bowl game

this only matters if he is on our roster in 2025.

if he leaves before that for any reason whatsoever, it was a dumb call.
even still, there is no law saying your redshirt year has to be your true freshman season.  he's still on pace and eligible for a redshirt THIS year if we want.

[Fishhead]

OK #1

Regarding Nuss "preserving his redshirt", this is something that's taken me a while to get over. As Nootch mentioned, you can redshirt any year. It isn't relegated to your freshman year. 

I thought it was a shitty decision then and honestly expected he was doing that so he could transfer with 4 years to play.  Clearly that isn't what happened, and he's proven to be a great teammate and I'm glad he stuck around, but that was a dumb decision. 

#2

Kelly gets at least a third year but that number fluctuates based on the direction of the program, including with regards to recruiting and assistant movement/subsequent hires. Let's see how season 2 plays out, but anyone already insinuating he was the wrong hire or should be gone is ignorant. He inherited a worse situation than Saban did here and won the west year one.  

[Swerved]

Even he said before the season that this wasn't going to be "the" season; he said he felt like next year maybe... That was regarding a championship.

My biggest concern right now is the defensive backfield. All those portal stars and they looked like fools against Grambling for a quarter, and the entire game last week. Maybe they just haven't clicked and started finding their groove yet, maybe they are only playing for themselves and the exposure, or what. But, if they play like they have been playing we are in for a very long an painful season to watch. Of course, I said about the same last year and it turned out pretty well, all things considered.

[Nutriaitch]

5 minutes ago, Swerved said:

Even he said before the season that this wasn't going to be "the" season; he said he felt like next year maybe... That was regarding a championship.

My biggest concern right now is the defensive backfield. All those portal stars and they looked like fools against Grambling for a quarter, and the entire game last week. Maybe they just haven't clicked and started finding their groove yet, maybe they are only playing for themselves and the exposure, or what. But, if they play like they have been playing we are in for a very long an painful season to watch. Of course, I said about the same last year and it turned out pretty well, all things considered.

where the hell were you the last couple weeks?

get your ass in game chat next week.
@Big T too.

 

[houtiger]

1 hour ago, Nutriaitch said:

before I can give a serious answer, I'll need you to define "sound team"

I will define sound year as target 10-2, at least a serious contender for the SEC West, or the SEC championship when we realign and lose the east/west designation.  Occasionally we go 11-1 or 12-0.  Occasionally we slip up and go 9-3.

[houtiger]

1 hour ago, Nutriaitch said:

this only matters if he is on our roster in 2025.

if he leaves before that for any reason whatsoever, it was a dumb call.
even still, there is no law saying your redshirt year has to be your true freshman season.  he's still on pace and eligible for a redshirt THIS year if we want.

I disagree.  It was a good call.  Nobody expected to win that bowl, we got skunked and it meant nothing.  I would love for Nuss to take over for Jayden next year, be phenomenal and go pro after his junior year.  Not likely IMO.  The odds favor him having a good year and returning for his Sr. year.  In any case, nobody cared about that bowl, a potential year for Nuss vs. losing that bowl by a few less points, I'll take the year for Nuss in a heart beat.  If he leaves, you get in the box, you take your chances.  Nobody has a crystal ball.

[Nutriaitch]

1 minute ago, houtiger said:

I will define sound year as target 10-2, at least a serious contender for the SEC West,

he did that year 1, and until he loses a West game (which the division looks winnable again) he's on pace to do it again this year

1 minute ago, houtiger said:

or the SEC championship when we realign and lose the east/west designation.  Occasionally we go 11-1 or 12-0.  Occasionally we slip up and go 9-3.

so he's already right where you're asking how long he gets?

also, why is Kelly held to 9-3 as the floor when other than 2019, you held O to a much lower standard than that?
9-3 was Firable for Les.

and you seem to be insinuating that an "occasional" 9-3 is maybe acceptable for Kelly.

9-3 got O a raise and extension that you were in favor of him getting.

it's ok, I already know that answer. You don't have to say it out loud.

[Nutriaitch]

Just now, houtiger said:

I disagree.  It was a good call.  Nobody expected to win that bowl, we got skunked and it meant nothing.  I would love for Nuss to take over for Jayden next year, be phenomenal and go pro after his junior year.  Not likely IMO.  The odds favor him having a good year and returning for his Sr. year.  In any case, nobody cared about that bowl, a potential year for Nuss vs. losing that bowl by a few less points, I'll take the year for Nuss in a heart beat.  If he leaves, you get in the box, you take your chances.  Nobody has a crystal ball.

that was a GOLDEN opportunity for Nuss to take the reigns and prove he was "the guy"
30 days of practice plus a game.

He studs out and we never even look at JD in the portal.
Nuss is our starting QB, this is year 2 as a starter and if he is even a fraction of what this fanbase thinks he is, he is a top half of the draft QB.

Walker Howard takes over next year as starter, because he doesn't transfer out knowing he plays one year as a backup.

 

if Nuss is not on our roster 2 full calendar years from now, then redshirting him that season was stupid.
seriously, we could have easily redshirted him last year if him having a redshirt was so important.
we could still redshirt him this year too.

I said it that night. I say it today.
And when 2025 rolls around and Nuss isn't on LSU's roster, I'll say it again.

I don't have a crystal ball. But I have watched this movie before.  Saw the sequel. Watched the remake 20 years later.

 

 

[houtiger]

3 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

so he's already right where you're asking how long he gets?

Read the title of the topic.  I did not ask how long he gets, as in firing him.  He has a long term contract, he's going to be here for years.

Many fans are hitting the panic button because our secondary looks weak, they seem to think we will fall below 9-3, and they think Kelly was a poor hire, or he doesn't know how to coach.  I am not in that camp.

I think we were misled going into the season by Kelly, the players, the national ranking, the sporting press.

When you look at the 2021 season ending CB situation and QB situation, and all position groups, Kelly had a lot of rebuilding to do, he did it well, but a lot of holes were filled with Sr. who left after one year.  To think you can go to the portal every year and field a championship contender is not reasonable.  You may need a certain position and on a given year there is no top quality guy at that position in the portal, or he chooses to go somewhere else.  The portal year in and year out is a crap shoot.  See Duce Chestnut and Zy Alexander.  The Denver Harris experiment is not over.

That task is not to get to 10-2, it is to consistently play at least at that level.

The fan base seems to be disappointed in Kelly because the team is not the 2002-2011 Tiger teams.  I think we are OK. 

 

[Big T]

25 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

where the hell were you the last couple weeks?

get your ass in game chat next week.
@Big T too.

 

I'll be in Okinawa next week. I'll see what I can do. Not sure I want to calculate the time difference to watch us lose to moo u

[houtiger]

12 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

He studs out and we never even look at JD in the portal.

Wrong.  Nuss was not enough, Howard would be a freshman.  No way you go into a season without another QB, one with experience.  You go look for the best you can get and that was Daniels.  You have to have at least 3 scholly QB's.

[Hatchertiger]

Well honestly, he built a pretty good team last year all things considered.  The CBs he got via the portal worked out probably better than he even thought. This year, thus far, not as pretty a picture there.  I'll give him four years to get "his" team together.

Off topic but what if Jimbo didn't have all that guranteed money, would he go gone already?

[houtiger]

21 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

also, why is Kelly held to 9-3 as the floor when other than 2019, you held O to a much lower standard than that?
9-3 was Firable for Les.

The question is whether the team is improving toward contention for titles, or not. 

Les clearly was moving in the wrong direction.  He could not beat top teams with his offense, and he could not attract top QB's because of his offense, and he was too hard headed to change it.  He had to go.

O had to rebuild from Les mistakes and it took him a couple of years of good recruiting, but the team was improving.  When he saw he could not beat Gumps with the offense he had, he brought in Joe Brady.  He attracted Joe Burrow.  Then we had 2019.  Clearly he earned a raise and extension or LSU would have become a pariah of a coaching job.  Then he crapped the bed and he had to go.  How long do you give the head coach who just won the natty?  Two years is the answer, about right.  Woodward is no fool.

Now the record is moot.  We gave Kelly 9 mil a year for 10 years, so it doesn't matter what his record if for the next 6 years.  I don't think we'll buy out more than 3 or 4 years.

[Nutriaitch]

9 minutes ago, houtiger said:

Read the title of the topic.  I did not ask how long he gets, as in firing him.  He has a long term contract, he's going to be here for years.

Many fans are hitting the panic button because our secondary looks weak, they seem to think we will fall below 9-3, and they think Kelly was a poor hire, or he doesn't know how to coach.  I am not in that camp.

I think we were misled going into the season by Kelly, the players, the national ranking, the sporting press.

When you look at the 2021 season ending CB situation and QB situation, and all position groups, Kelly had a lot of rebuilding to do, he did it well, but a lot of holes were filled with Sr. who left after one year.  To think you can go to the portal every year and field a championship contender is not reasonable.  You may need a certain position and on a given year there is no top quality guy at that position in the portal, or he chooses to go somewhere else.  The portal year in and year out is a crap shoot.  See Duce Chestnut and Zy Alexander.  The Denver Harris experiment is not over.

That task is not to get to 10-2, it is to consistently play at least at that level.

The fan base seems to be disappointed in Kelly because the team is not the 2002-2011 Tiger teams.  I think we are OK. 

 

my point is, where Kelly has LSU right now got Ed fornicating Oregon an extension and a raise.

it has Kelly with a tread on multiple boards asking how long he gets.  It got Les Miles fired.

my question is "why?"
why does Ed get an extension and raise for the same results that got Les fired and got Kelly with topics asking how much slack he gets.

again. I already know the answer, so if you don't want to type it out, I get it.

[Nutriaitch]

10 minutes ago, houtiger said:

Wrong.  Nuss was not enough, Howard would be a freshman.  No way you go into a season without another QB, one with experience.  You go look for the best you can get and that was Daniels.  You have to have at least 3 scholly QB's.

you are aware you can bring in an experienced guy that is not brought in with the expectations of leading the team, right?

 

[Nutriaitch]

5 minutes ago, houtiger said:

The question is whether the team is improving toward contention for titles, or not. 

Les clearly was moving in the wrong direction.  He could not beat top teams with his offense, and he could not attract top QB's because of his offense, and he was too hard headed to change it.  He had to go.

Les was #1 in the first CFB Playoff poll his last full season here,

5 minutes ago, houtiger said:

O had to rebuild from Les mistakes

O himself said it wasn't a rebuild.

 

He changed his tune when Troy kicked his illiterate ass, then somehow convinced this fanbase that fornicating TROY had better athletes than LSU.

 

5 minutes ago, houtiger said:

 

and it took him a couple of years of good recruiting, but the team was improving. 

2017 was the worst staistical year we'd had since 2009.

"worst" is literally the opposite of improving.

2018 was worse statistically with an identical record and similar looses to 2015.
again, still not improving by any measurable way possible. (but he got a raise).
in fact, statistically the offense was worse than the absolute worst statistical offense Les ever fielded.

but he got a raise and extension for it. why?
oh wait, he went 9-3. the same record that had people ready to tar and feather Les in 2015.

Kelly gets a thread asking how much time he gets.

5 minutes ago, houtiger said:

 

When he saw he could not beat Gumps with the offense he had, he brought in Joe Brady. 

would you like me to tell you who has the 2 most lopsided losses against Alabama since WWII?
would you like me to tell you the ONLY coach to be shut out twice by Alabama at home in the entire history of our school?

 

hint: he got a RAISE and and EXTENSION for "OVERACHIEVING"

his "overachieving" was literally the same results that got the guy before him fired, and the guy after him a topic asking "how long should it take"

5 minutes ago, houtiger said:

 

He attracted Joe Burrow. 

Busch landed Burrow.
Ed never even heard of him prior.

5 minutes ago, houtiger said:

 

Clearly he earned a raise and extension or LSU would have become a pariah of a coaching job. 

he got one PRIOR to 2019.

for turning in results that got the guy before him fired.
and apparently are questionable enough for you to start a thread asking how long the guy that follows him gets.

 

so, if 2017 and 2018 gets Ed a raise and extension, then 2022 and 2023 (so far) should get one for Kelly too.
 

 

[houtiger]

39 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

my point is, where Kelly has LSU right now got Ed fornicating Oregon an extension and a raise.

it has Kelly with a tread on multiple boards asking how long he gets.  It got Les Miles fired.

my question is "why?"

The short answer is "because there is a segment of the LSU fan base that is crazy".

The man took over a dumpster fire 2 recruiting classes ago, and he didn't have a chance to recruit in the first class, all he could do was try to hold on to O's recruits, all 13 of them. 

Woodward gave him a 10 year deal, and I don't think we'll buy him out with more than 4 years remaining, unless he really messes it up, and he does not show signs of that.

[houtiger]

43 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

you are aware you can bring in an experienced guy that is not brought in with the expectations of leading the team, right?

Nuss sat his freshman year.  You're not going to go to the portal and try to sign a backup to a true soph that has barely taken a snap, none with the game on the line.  That's stupid.  You would bring in the best guy you can get in the portal, period, in that situation.  The guys in the portal are looking for a place where they can play, at least contend for a starting job.  They will look at the situation carefully.  Of course Myles Brennan announced he was coming back, but he hadn't played in almost 2 years, and he was not mobile.  When he talked to Denbrock, he heard he liked mobility, Daniels figured he could beat Brennan, and he did. 

[Fishhead]

1 hour ago, Swerved said:

Even he said before the season that this wasn't going to be "the" season; he said he felt like next year maybe... That was regarding a championship.

My biggest concern right now is the defensive backfield. All those portal stars and they looked like fools against Grambling for a quarter, and the entire game last week. Maybe they just haven't clicked and started finding their groove yet, maybe they are only playing for themselves and the exposure, or what. But, if they play like they have been playing we are in for a very long an painful season to watch. Of course, I said about the same last year and it turned out pretty well, all things considered.

Portal stars: 

1. Denver Harris
2. JK Johnson
3. Duce Chestnut
4. Zy Alexander
5. Andre Sam

Let's dissect.  

• Harris is talented, the most talented in the unit.  He's a mental basket case.  He'll either get it together, or he'll be gone.  Kelly said in the post game presser, the guys will either get on board with his way of doing things or they'll watch.  He said after last week, "he didn't like watching".  So we'll see where it goes from here. 
• JK Johnson fractured a bone in his leg almost immediately upon the start of fall camp.  MAYBE we'll see him late in the year, but will he be ready?
• Duce Chestnut was 5'11" when he got here from SYRACUSE, and still is.  He's been slow the whole time too.  
• Zy Alexander was fantastic in the Southland Conference at Southeastern.  The SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE. 
• Andre Sam is collecting SS after spending 5 years at McNeese and a year at Marshall.  Yes, he's playing his SEVENTH season of CFB. 

What portal stars?  Looks like we got a couple good ones on the DL, but other than that, we didn't get the talent we got last year in the defensive backfield.  Kelly has to figure a way to also recruit elite talent.  Portal additions will be hit or miss most often.

 

[houtiger]

37 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

Les was #1 in the first CFB Playoff poll his last full season here,

You are wrong, he was #2 to Clemson, and the point is totally irrelevant since he lost to Gumps the next week 30-16, lost to Arky the next week 31-14 and lost to Ole Miss the next week 38-17 and was not listed in the top 25 CFP teams by late Nov.  That is why he had to go.  His offense was moribund.  He said he'd change it, kept Cameron around, did not change it, went 2-2 and was appropriately fired.  9-3 is not all that counts, who did you beat, and if none of them are contender type teams, you have not accomplished much.  Miles had one good win in 2015, over #8 Florida, but it appeared the gap between Gumps and LSU was growing wider, LSU was falling behind.

[houtiger]

47 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

Busch landed Burrow.
Ed never even heard of him prior.

Wrong.  Ed asked Busch about Joe, Busch said if we get Burrow we will win the natty.  Busch recommended Joe.  You think Joe is going to come to LSU because he knows the safety's coach?  Naw.

Ed recruited Joe to LSU.  When Joe stood on the Heisman stage, he didn't thank Busch for bringing him to LSU, he thanked Ed.  He said Ed took a chance on Joe.  That's all you need to know.  Joe said it on the big stage, with Ed sitting next to his Dad.

[Swerved]

1 hour ago, Nutriaitch said:

where the hell were you the last couple weeks?

get your ass in game chat next week.
@Big T too.

 

It's been a busy couple weeks.  Had a heart ablation done two weeks ago so  last week I was still kinda taking it easy trying not to get too worked up. Florida state firetrucked that up for me.. lol... Had some friends over last night, and next week I'll be at their house. I'll check in on my phone if I remember but no promises.. I hate day games.. lol

[dachsie]

55 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

Les was #1 in the first CFB Playoff poll his last full season here,

O himself said it wasn't a rebuild.

 

He changed his tune when Troy kicked his illiterate ass, then somehow convinced this fanbase that fornicating TROY had better athletes than LSU.

 

2017 was the worst staistical year we'd had since 2009.

"worst" is literally the opposite of improving.

2018 was worse statistically with an identical record and similar looses to 2015.
again, still not improving by any measurable way possible. (but he got a raise).
in fact, statistically the offense was worse than the absolute worst statistical offense Les ever fielded.

but he got a raise and extension for it. why?
oh wait, he went 9-3. the same record that had people ready to tar and feather Les in 2015.

Kelly gets a thread asking how much time he gets.

would you like me to tell you who has the 2 most lopsided losses against Alabama since WWII?
would you like me to tell you the ONLY coach to be shut out twice by Alabama at home in the entire history of our school?

 

hint: he got a RAISE and and EXTENSION for "OVERACHIEVING"

his "overachieving" was literally the same results that got the guy before him fired, and the guy after him a topic asking "how long should it take"

Busch landed Burrow.
Ed never even heard of him prior.

he got one PRIOR to 2019.

for turning in results that got the guy before him fired.
and apparently are questionable enough for you to start a thread asking how long the guy that follows him gets.

 

so, if 2017 and 2018 gets Ed a raise and extension, then 2022 and 2023 (so far) should get one for Kelly too.
 

 

Ed O should have never got an extension - who was wanting to come in to get him?  That was Alleva acting the fool.