CFP Committee Poll / Projections / Rooting Interests

[Nutriaitch]

Ok folks, one weekend to go and for the first time since the playoffs were  created, we are in the thick of things going into Conference Championship weekend.

CFP Poll going into weekend.

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Utah
6. Oklahoma
7. Baylor
8. Wisconsin

 

Literally nobody else has a shot at getting in.

Next post will break down this weekend's schedule, who we pulling for, and why.

[Nutriaitch]

Games listed in order of importance (from least to most) to LSU. Team in BOLD is who we should be rooting for.

USL vs App State - Sun Belt Championship - Game has really close no bearing on anything, but phuck USL. Plus we want App to jump Cincinnati (more on them a little later)

Virginia vs Clemson - ACC Championship - Game actually means very little to us. A Clemson loss does give us some extra cushion should the unmentionable happen in our game Saturday.  Clemson has almost no shot at #1 this year so at best they are playing for #2.  There is literally no difference in being the 2 seed vs being the 3 seed this year. 

next two games are basically a tie in importance:
Utah vs Oregon - Pac12 Championship
Baylor vs Oklahoma - BigXII Championship
The above two outcomes are simply to give us a little breathing room in the event something unfortunate happens in our game Saturday.
I don't want it to be us as a non-champ up against a 1-loss Champ Oklahoma because I don't trust the committee. Utah is also getting enough respect that I'd rather not chance it.

Cincinnati vs Memphis -  AAC Championship - Cincinnati give tOSU a 5th win vs a ranked opponent (vs our 4).  A Memphis win in this one could potentially knock the Bearcats clean out of the rankings. Which would be a help to us.

Wisconsin vs Ohio State - Big Ten Championship - Seriously, we want the #1 seed this year. That would give us a game in Atlanta against an opponent we would be favored over and have a "home field" advantage over as well.

 

Georgia vs LSU - SEC Championship - Do i have to explain this one?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Nutriaitch]

ok, so a quick Q&A in my head

Can we take over #1 without tOSU losing?

• yes I think we can, but there is no guarantee.  Them beating Wisconsin a second time probably won't carry as much weight as us beating a new team.  So if the two games are similar in margins of victory, they may stay #1. If we win by a noticeably more comfortable margin, we have a shot at jumping them.

Where are we playing in Round 1 if we win the SEC CG?

• Pretty simple at this point.  If we're #1, we will be Atlanta. I don't see any possible scenario that could change that.
• If we're #2 the odds very heavily favor us going out west. 

Will we still make it if we lose to Georgia?

• Possible.  But I don't think it's as much of a sure thing as some are making this out to be.
• For example a 1-Loss LSU that is not a conference champion vs a 1-Loss Oklahoma that has a conference title under their belt.....I don't know if we have that level of respect from the committee to hold off a "name brand" team like OU. 
• Also, Utah is getting a ton of respect from media and committee. I would be more comfortable in our chances against them in that committee room than I would OU, but this one isn't a slam dunk for us either.
• Yeah we're in over Baylor.

 

Any other questions, I'd be happy to take a shot at answering
 

[dachsie]

I am not sure what the committee will do.  Apparently they don't think quality of wins is as important as a "complete team".

At the beginning of the season I had doubts, I picked us as 10-2 and wasn't sure who the 2nd loss would be because I just felt we had been burned too many times.  Now I feel like we will have no problem with the SECCG.  Georgia lost to SC that was killed by A&M and A&M played really well against them and then we annihilated them.  Maybe I am feeling over-confident now?  I don't think this team will let us down or let Joe down.

[Nutriaitch]

42 minutes ago, dachsie said:

I am not sure what the committee will do.  Apparently they don't think quality of wins is as important as a "complete team".

Have you actually looked at Ohio State's schedule?

They beat teams currently ranked 8 , 10 , 14 by a combined 78 points
We beat teams currently ranked 9 , 11, 12 by a combined 22 points

They also beat the #20 team by 42 points. We don't have a 4th currently ranked opponent.

so which quality win to you think they are devaluing?

 

[Herb]

Kirk Herbstreit has it on authority that Orgeron will be the next coach at tOSU.

[Nutriaitch]

oh an one more thing......

another complaint I have is not knowing how large of a gap exists between two schools.

example: Utah at 5 and OU at 6
how close does the committee consider them to each other? 
how far behind UGA is Utah?

etc.

 

[Nutriaitch]

Interesting tidbits:

of the 8 teams I've listed above: 

• 4 of them have top 4 total offenses. 
• 5 of them have top 6 total defenses.
• 7 of the 8 are top 18 scoring offenses
• 4 of them have top 4 scoring defenses

[Nutriaitch]

more tidbits:

• #1 and #3 teams have never won the National Championship
• the highest ranked total offense (of the 4 playoff teams) has never won a National Championship
• the highest ranked total defense (of the 4 playoff teams) has won 3 of the 5 National Championships
• the highest ranked scoring defense (of the 4 playoff teams) has won 3 of the 5 National Championships
• the highest ranked scoring offense (of the 4 playoff teams) has never won the National Championship
• the highest ranked passing offense (of the 4 playoff teams) has only won 1 National Championship
• the highest ranked rushing offense (of the 4 playoff teams) has won 3 of the 5 National Championships

[dachsie]

7 hours ago, Nutriaitch said:

Have you actually looked at Ohio State's schedule?

They beat teams currently ranked 8 , 10 , 14 by a combined 78 points
We beat teams currently ranked 9 , 11, 12 by a combined 22 points

They also beat the #20 team by 42 points. We don't have a 4th currently ranked opponent.

so which quality win to you think they are devaluing?

So you are saying even if we beat GA, tOSU should remain #1?

[Nutriaitch]

19 minutes ago, dachsie said:

So you are saying even if we beat GA, tOSU should remain #1?

no, i’m saying i understand completely how they are #1 right now.  

and i wouldn’t be shocked if they remained #1 after this weekend. 

My gut is that we will pass them if we both win. But that is far from guaranteed. 

[dachsie]

One of my Aggie Docs I work with told me today that he hopes we play OSU so Joe can smoke them.  lol

[LSUDad]

Rabalais: If résumé matters, here's how LSU can claim CFP No. 1 spot in final rankings

• BY SCOTT RABALAIS | SPORTS COLUMNIST
• PUBLISHED DEC 4, 2019 AT 5:54 PM | UPDATED DEC 4, 2019 AT 8:50 PM
•  3 min to read

 

Buy Now

LSU coach Ed Orgeron marches down Victory Hill with team members before their game against Texas A&M at Tiger Stadium, Saturday, Nov. 30, 2019.

STAFF PHOTO BY TRAVIS SPRADLING

 

 

Scott Rabalais

For a town whose team has yet to make it into the College Football Playoff’s version of the final four, Baton Rouge sure was a grumpy place Tuesday night after the next-to-last CFP rankings were released.

Upon seeing LSU was No. 2, sandwiched for the second straight week between fellow 12-0s Ohio State and Clemson, the two most printable words, in keeping with the holiday season, were “Bah!” and “Humbug!”

When it comes to LSU, there is a sense, much like with the shafted New Orleans Saints from January’s NFC Championship game, that the Tigers have a rare opportunity to contend for a national championship this season. And that the stars may not align quite this way for a couple of years at least.

 

It’s an opportunity that gets a lot more complicated if the top three teams hold serve this weekend in their respective conference title games, if the matchup is No. 2 LSU versus No. 3 Clemson instead of No. 1 LSU versus No. 4 Utah/Oklahoma/Baylor.

Of course the Tigers first have to hurdle current CFP No. 4 Georgia in Saturday’s SEC Championship Game, and that's no small feat. But starting from the premise that LSU can do that, there are some signs that point to the Tigers at least having a chance to reclaim that coveted No. 1 spot.

Starting with:

 

Win impressively against Georgia. Or, more to the point, win and play impressive defense against Georgia. Even if LSU’s offense has some relative struggles, as it did against Auburn (LSU had 508 yards total offense but won 23-20 when it bogged down in the red zone), that offense is going to get a pass because of how well it has played overall.

The focus has been on the defense all season — especially LSU gave up 38 points to Texas, 41 to Alabama and 37 to Ole Piss, with 614 yards allowed (402 of them rushing). LSU has trended much better the past two games, allowing 304 yards to Arkansas and 169 to Texas A&M. But the Tigers need to put on another good show against an offensively challenged Georgia team that scored more than 30 points just once in SEC play (43-14 at Tennessee).

Build a better résumé. When it comes to choosing between Ohio State and LSU for the No. 1 spot, it certainly sounds as though CFP selection committee chairman Rob Mullens picked the argument that suited his committee best. Last week, when Ohio State replaced LSU at No. 1, Mullens said it was the eye test, largely referring to the Tigers’ defense (or lack thereof). This week he pointed to the Buckeyes’ résumé and its four wins over current CFP top 25 teams compared to three for LSU.

The committee could choose to favor the “eye test” over résumé once again in its final rankings. But if you read carefully into what Mullens — who is as difficult to read as tax code — said Tuesday night, he showed LSU has a path forward when it comes to résumé.

“Two really, really good teams,” Mullens said of Ohio State and LSU. “That's what the committee sees. Ohio State now, with their impressive win over Michigan on the road, has four wins over top-25 teams. LSU has three very impressive wins over top-25 teams. As we've talked in past weeks, both really have dynamic offenses, both have good defenses. Ohio State's is just a little ahead at this point.”

The committee may continue to be infatuated with the Ohio State team it sees on the field. But it may be hard-pressed to keep the Buckeyes ahead if LSU pulls off what is essentially another huge top-four road win against Georgia.

 

Help from unlikely places. In 2003, LSU needed Boise State to beat Hawaii in literally the last game of the regular season to give LSU a better strength of schedule than Southern California. That allowed the Tigers to slide past the Trojans and into the Sugar Bowl to play Oklahoma for the BCS national championship.

 

In 2007, LSU needed Oklahoma to beat No. 1 Missouri in the Big 12 championship game and Pittsburgh to upset West Virginia to snag the No. 2 spot opposite new No. 1 Ohio State. That put LSU in the BCS National Championship Game in the Superdome.

This year, LSU may need an assist along similar, if not quite so obvious, lines.

Just before LSU and Georgia kick off Saturday, CFP No. 17 Memphis hosts No. 20 Cincinnati in the American Athletic championship game. Memphis beat Cincinnati 34-24 last week. If Memphis can beat Cincinnati again, it might push the 10-2 Bearcats out of the top 25, thus denying Ohio State (which routed the Bearcats 42-0 on Sept. 7 in Columbus) one of those precious CFP quality wins.

If Cincinnati were to drop out, Ohio State would have two wins over current No. 8 Wisconsin (likely to drop out of the top 10), one over current No. 10 Penn State and one over No. 14 Michigan.

LSU would have wins over two teams in the top five at the time (then-No. 3 Alabama and then-No. 4 Georgia), both away from home, along with wins over current No. 9 Florida and No. 11 Auburn. If the CFP leans toward résumé, it would be difficult to explain away Ohio State’s advantage over LSU when the Tigers would have four wins over teams likely to finish in the top 12.

However it turns out … expect LSU to be in the CFP. Even if LSU loses to Georgia, the consensus (though it's pure speculation) is that the Tigers have done enough to make it in. Probably as the No. 4 seed, and probably destined to face Ohio State if the Buckeyes win.

But at that point, LSU would be happy to still be in the playoff. Happier than the Tigers and their fans are right now to find themselves looking up at the Buckeyes with no sure path to the top.

[LSUDad]

You might want to listen to Matt, break this down. 

 

 

[dachsie]

God know how much I dislike InbredGumps, but how do they drop 7 spots after losing a close one to Auburn and Michigan only drops 1 spot after getting annihilated?

 

Ok - Mascona just said this as I am listening.  LOL

[Nutriaitch]

I quit listening about halfway through. Matt is a blithering idiot that has apparently never paid any attention to the committee prior to this year. And has also never seen a football game that didn't involve LSU.

Here are my counters to the points he THINKS he makes.

Clean Sheet

• Yes, the committee starts with a clean sheet each week.  What that means is that last weeks rankings do not have a direct impact on this weeks rankings.  
• It does NOT mean ignore every game prior to this one as Moscona seems to imply. 

Alabama Plummet

• Alabama has yet to beat a ranked opponent
• Alabama has yet to beat a team with fewer than 5 losses
• Alabama has lost to every good team they've faced

Cincinnati v Texas

• They are not at all saying it's better to schedule an American Athletic team. They're saying Texas sucks this year (and they're right).
• In 2019 you don't get credit for Texas from 2005. You get credit for shitty Texas from 2019.  Ignore the names and look at the teams themselves.
• Apparently bot the AP and Coaches polls are in on this conspiracy because they ranked Cincy only one spot off from the CFP.

Michigan not plummeting

• Should they fall past ND who they beat the goldenshower out of?
• Should they have fallen past Iowa who they also beat already?

Minnesota plummeting

• Played 3 ranked opponents this month. Lost 2 of them. With only a win vs 2-9 Northwestern in between

 

[dachsie]

But Cincinnati also only dropped one point after a loss this week.  App State has a better record but they are ranked lower.  Cincy dropped 3 in the AP and 4 in coaches polls

I think this committee has some bias and its showing.  When do they change members again?

[dachsie]

And I am going to go out on a limb here and say that OSUs wins where they blow to other teams are comparable to our blowout wins over the teams we played.  In other words, they had more of those types of teams to play  than we did.  Their whole schedule was filled with them.  How would they have done in the SEC?

Let's see how they do with better competition

Edited December 5, 2019 by dachsie

[Nutriaitch]

6 minutes ago, dachsie said:

God know how much I dislike InbredGumps, but how do they drop 7 spots after losing a close one to Auburn and Michigan only drops 1 spot after getting annihilated?

 

Ok - Mascona just said this as I am listening.  LOL

Who are you putting them in front of?

Utah/OU/Baylor all have only 1 loss and in conference championship games
Florida/Wisconsin/Penn St. all have same record as Alabama but have actually beat teams with a pulse this year (unlike Alabama).

 

[Nutriaitch]

7 minutes ago, dachsie said:

But Cincinnati also only dropped one point after a loss this week.  App State has a better record but they are ranked lower.  Cincy dropped 3 in the AP and 4 in coaches polls

I think this committee has some bias and its showing.  When do they change members again?

the committee already had them lower than AP and coaches did
Memphis, Boise, Iowa are the teams that jumped them in those polls. Those teams were already ahead of Cincy in the CFP.

5 minutes ago, dachsie said:

And I am going to go out on a limb here and say that OSUs wins where they blow to other teams are comparable to our blowout wins over the teams we played.  In other words, they had more of those types of teams to play  than we did.  Their whole schedule was filled with them.  How would they have done in the SEC?

Let's see how they do with better competition

Games vs Similarly ranked teams:

They beat #8 Wisconsin by 38
We beat #9 Florida by 14

They beat #10 Penn State by 11
We beat #11 Auburn by 3

We beat #12 Alabama by 5
They beat #14 Michigan by 29

 

 

[Fishhead]

Nega-nootch is at it again I see

[Fishhead]

Just kidding buddy. tOSU is a great team with Dobbins, Fields, and Chase Young having incredible seasons. 

LSU has proven to be better on offense, but it's not crazy lopsided. Defensively, tOSU has shown to be better overall. 

Bottom line, truth is we don't know who has the better team. In fact, Clemson could wipe the field with both of us. We don't know unless we play each other. We're all in different conferences with nearly zero common opponents. 

It'll all shake out 

[Herb]

I wish Divinity could get some playing time before any title game.

I don't like the idea of a player who *might* need to knock some rust off coming in...it's never a given that those situations always work out as envisioned.

 

[dachsie]

5 hours ago, Nutriaitch said:

the committee already had them lower than AP and coaches did
Memphis, Boise, Iowa are the teams that jumped them in those polls. Those teams were already ahead of Cincy in the CFP.

Games vs Similarly ranked teams:

They beat #8 Wisconsin by 38
We beat #9 Florida by 14

They beat #10 Penn State by 11
We beat #11 Auburn by 3

We beat #12 Alabama by 5
They beat #14 Michigan by 29

 

 

I don't mean rankings.  I mean actual skill level.  I think OSU played teams that aren't as talented or skilled as the ones we played overall.  They played more like the bottom of the SEC ranks than they did the top ones

[Nutriaitch]

 

44 minutes ago, Fishhead said:

Just kidding buddy. tOSU is a great team with Dobbins, Fields, and Chase Young having incredible seasons. 

LSU has proven to be better on offense, but it's not crazy lopsided. Defensively, tOSU has shown to be better overall. 

Bottom line, truth is we don't know who has the better team. In fact, Clemson could wipe the field with both of us. We don't know unless we play each other. We're all in different conferences with nearly zero common opponents. 

It'll all shake out 

 

i think LSU and tOSU have separated themselves from Clemson.

but I don't think either LSU nor tOSU has separated from each other.
I think a legit viable debate/argument could be made for either team to be #1.