Coronavirus (non-sports related)

[Nutriaitch]

also been thinking, no way in hell the number of “recovered” is correct either. 

i mean who the hell goes back to the Dr when they’re no longer sick?  I sure as hell don’t. 

so i’d be willing to bet the recovered number is significantly higher (which in turn lowers the active cases). 

 

example 2013 i was officially diagnosed with the flu. shoved that swab so far up my nostril it scraped the inside of my scalp. Positive test for flu. 

Got a shot and a prescription. And haven’t been back since. 

Trust me when i say i no longer have the damn flu. 

But since i’ve never been back to actually be cleared, am i counted as a recovery? active? dead? alien abduction?

 

 

[dachsie]

Correct Nootch - it is much harder to measure the recoverable number.  My friend who is the lead for the Brazos County Health Authority told that to the media the other day in a press conference.

[LSUDad]

Busted:

 

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_2db55c6a-76b7-11ea-a565-73e44818f7c5.html

[LSUDad]

RIP Tom, from Mike Detiller. 

 

The death of former Saints PK. Tom Dempsey due to complications in contracting the CoronaVirus disease.
He was 73 years old.
Tom was a good man and meant so much to our community on and off the field.
Loved to talk football and before health issues occurred in his life a few years ago Emile Gauchet and David Hilbert got him to come do a show with Bobby J and I at Silver Slipper Casino Hotel..

He was so gracious with his time and was just a good man in life. 
Prayers and condolences for Carlene and his children and his many friends ..

[LSUDad]

More:

 

https://www.wwltv.com/mobile/article/news/local/tom-dempsey-legendary-new-orleans-saints-placekicker-dies-at-73/289-e66361a6-928d-4a7c-8705-ea155534102d

[Herb]

On 4/2/2020 at 9:58 PM, Nutriaitch said:

oh, i agree that it is.

but we don't know how many it is killing. And realistically, we won't know until somewhere down the road.

you would have to look at long term averages per month of your typical health related deaths.

example (these are completely made up numbers)

Heart Disease - 1,500
Diabetes - 1,000
Auto-Immune - 2,500
Respiratory issues - 3,000

lets just say the above is the average month. that's 8,000 deaths.
if this month there are 9,000 deaths it's not because

CoronaVirus - 7,300
Heart Disease - 500
Diabete - 350
Auto Immune -425
Respiratory - 425

more likely it will be something closer along the lines of:
Corona - 1,000
Heart - 1,500
Diabetes - 1,000
Auto-Immune -2,500
Respiratory - 3,000

Those other issues didn't suddenly stop killing people. 
But yet we have now completely suspended reporting those other deaths, and are automatically attributing anyone who tests positive (even if asymptomatic) as a corona death.

Which simply is not an accurate way to keep score.

One of the above looks like the 2nd coming of Black Death that wiped out half of Europe. Which we already know isn't going to happen.  
The other looks like a medical issue that does need attention. Some measures and precautions do need to be taken (especially for older people or those with other medical issues). But this can be handled without crashing an entire planet's economy. Just like literally every other pandemic in the history of modern medicine.

 

oh, that absolutely matters.
the death toll is what is driving every single decision right now. 

If there was only 50 deaths, you never would have even heard of this thing. 

 

It is way more likely that it is being underreported for the simple reason that they are not wasting test kits to test people that are already dead. There is a shortage of test kits and those that are available are reserved to test living people.

It is a shame that you feel compelled to contribute to a worsening crisis by bellyaching the BS you hear on Fox News. People are fucking dying and you are eager to help the diseas spread by telling anyone who will listen that this is somehow overblown.

It is not. This is a public health crisis and I could frankly give a fuck if we go into an economic depression if the choice is between living and making sure corporations that do not pay any taxes (ever) get bailed out by the government.

I hope everyone heres follows a strict and conservative, cautious approach to keep their loved ones from catching this disease that so far has no medication or vaccine that can cure or prevent its spread.

 

 

[Herb]

By the way, here is one of the Fox News "celebrity doctors" that now is publicly apologising for comparing coronaavirus to the flu and downplaying the threat to the public. 

 

https://heavy.com/news/2020/04/dr-drew-coronavirus-flu-death-threats/

 

Quote

Dr. Drew Apologizes For Comparing Coronavirus to the Flu

Share on FacebookShare on FlipboardShare via E-mailMore share options

• 29.5K Views
•  1.1K Shares

• 
• By Maria Vultaggio

• Updated Apr 4, 2020 at 5:05pm

Dr. Drew Pinsky said he was wrong for comparing the coronavirus to the flu.

Dr. Drew Pinsky issued a mea culpa for comparing the coronavirus to the flu on Periscope Saturday. His apology came after a video that showed him downplaying the deadly virus went viral. The doctor appeared on Fox News to talk about the pandemic and blamed the media for causing hysteria. Now he’s back-peddling on his earlier comments after he said he’s facing backlash and death threats.

“My early comments about equating with influenza were wrong. They were incorrect. I was part of a chorus that was saying that and we were wrong and I want to apologize for that. I wish I got it right but I got it wrong,” he said.

“What I did not get wrong was every time I took a position I said to make sure you listen to Dr. Fauci because he is the person we must look to. He was my guiding star during the AIDS epidemic and he should be your North Star now,” Pinsky said, referring to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “I said that every time I took a position.”

Dr Drew

 

✔@drdrew

 

 

#DoseOfDrDrew 4/4/2020 https://www.pscp.tv/w/cVeA_TYxNTA3fDFEWEd5ZU9rV1JXR03zg0LvKYiuQeZJiwo2KuFWUAPPkHd6e2ll4T5ROiVgGw== …

Dr Drew @drdrew

#DoseOfDrDrew 4/4/2020 (Take 1)

pscp.tv

 

278

3:07 PM - Apr 4, 2020

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467 people are talking about this

 

 

 

 

 

---

Previously Pinsky Told People Not to Panic

Pinsky said the media’s reporting of coronavirus was “reprehensible” during an interview with the Washington Examiner’s podcast “Examining Politics.” He advised people to look to Dr. Fauci for guidance and told them not to worry about the pandemic.

“Do what he tells you and go about your business. That’s the story. Do not be alarmed by the word ‘pandemic,’” he said.

Pinsky said smokers over 50 and people over 75 should be worried. “The rest of us? Go about your business,” he said. “Wash your hands, get your flu shot. That should be the story. Because you are way more likely, orders of magnitude, more likely to die of the flu than the coronavirus.”

 

Pinsky blamed the press. “What I have a problem with is the panic and the fact that businesses are getting destroyed, that people’s lives are being upended, not by the virus, but by the panic,” Pinsky said during a March 11 interview with CBS. “The panic must stop. And the press, they really somehow need to be held accountable because they are hurting people.”

He had a similar message when he appeared on Fox & Friends on March 6. “Look, the WHO has said there’s about a three percent fatality rate on this virus and every time they say that they always qualify it and say we expect it to drop a lot once we understand the full extent of the virus. … It’s among us. This is a flu season, everybody, There are 18,000 deaths from the flu,” Pinsky said. 

“Why aren’t we worried about that?” he continued. “Why isn’t the message: get your flu shot? You’re much more likely to die of the flu than the coronavirus.”

---

The CDC Recommends Wearing Masks

According to Johns Hopkins University, the number of infections in the U.S. has eclipsed 301,000, with more than 8,100 deaths. On Friday, the CDC recommended that everyone start to wear masks to prevent community spread. Since medical supplies are short, the CDC recommended people save the medical N95 masks for the professionals, and instead advised people to cover their faces with scarves or bandanas.

 

Fuck him.

[Nutriaitch]

1 hour ago, Herb said:

It is way more likely that it is being underreported for the simple reason that they are not wasting test kits to test people that are already dead. There is a shortage of test kits and those that are available are reserved to test living people.

It is a shame that you feel compelled to contribute to a worsening crisis by bellyaching the BS you hear on Fox News. People are fornicating dying and you are eager to help the diseas spread by telling anyone who will listen that this is somehow overblown.

It is not. This is a public health crisis and I could frankly give a fornicate if we go into an economic depression if the choice is between living and making sure corporations that do not pay any taxes (ever) get bailed out by the government.

I hope everyone heres follows a strict and conservative, cautious approach to keep their loved ones from catching this disease that so far has no medication or vaccine that can cure or prevent its spread.

 

Herb,

I do sincerely apologize if I in anyway upset you with my opinion on this.  

I can assure you my stance is not politically motivated, and I don't think I have ever watched Fox News in my life.  If so, it has been so long ago and such an isolated instance that I don't recall doing it.  

I'll bow out of this topic now.

 

[Herb]

33 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

 

Herb,

I do sincerely apologize if I in anyway upset you with my opinion on this.  

I can assure you my stance is not politically motivated, and I don't think I have ever watched Fox News in my life.  If so, it has been so long ago and such an isolated instance that I don't recall doing it.  

I'll bow out of this topic now.

 

I don't want you to bow out.  I think of you as a friend.

All I ask is that you think responsibly on this.  Here are the latest stats in Louisiana alone:

 

Quote

68 deaths in the state from yesterday alone.

If you have proof that these are not indeed that high, I'd love ot see it.

This is not a case where the media is blowing this out of proportion.

If you can show me a year since 1960 where Louisiana had flu cases that resulted in death rates like this, I'll shut up.

I'm just saying that people are dying and we should not minimize this and pretend it is being blown out of proportion.

Apologies on the Fox News thing...I just see tyoo many people trying to downplay this because they are not getting accurate information from certain news outlets that are bending over backwards to justify inaction.

[Herb]

One other thing that pisses me off is that people are quick to blame Louisiana citizens for holding Mardi Gras this year.

No one knew there were active cases in the state at that time and the NBA was stilll playing games at packed arenas, every movie theater across the country was open, people were holding political rallies, there were concerts at arenas, etc.,.

All of the clamp down was AFTER Mardi Gras but somehow New Orleans should have forseen the future and cancelled Mardi Gras.

It wasn't until 2 weeks after Mardi Gras that shit started getting real.

[Nutriaitch]

47 minutes ago, Herb said:

I don't want you to bow out.  I think of you as a friend.

All I ask is that you think responsibly on this.  Here are the latest stats in Louisiana alone:

 

68 deaths in the state from yesterday alone.

If you have proof that these are not indeed that high, I'd love ot see it.

This is not a case where the media is blowing this out of proportion.

If you can show me a year since 1960 where Louisiana had flu cases that resulted in death rates like this, I'll shut up.

I’ve said all along that my opinions are based off of sheer numbers. 

Not medicine, not journalists opinions, etc. 

the Death “Rate” that we see is simply not accurate.  

In order to be accurate, you need all of the info. And right now we simply do not have that info.

The fact that we aren’t even testing asymptomatic people as of now shows that we don’t have enough info to give an accurate number. 

That would be like calculating Batting Average, but only counting plate appearance where the guy gets to 1st. 

 

Quote

I'm just saying that people are dying and we should not minimize this and pretend it is being blown out of proportion.

Both of these statements can be true at the same time. 

People can be dying (and they are, ive acknowledged as much). AND it can be blown out of proportion to make it seem even worse than it actually is. 

 

Quote

 

Apologies on the Fox News thing...I just see tyoo many people trying to downplay this because they are not getting accurate information from certain news outlets that are bending over backwards to justify inaction.

I don’t watch news channels. 

I do watch the President and the Governors press conferences. But only the conferences. I don’t care about any journalists interpretation of what they said. 

I’ve said it before, i’m a numbers guy. I realize that does take the humanity out of the equation, and for that I do apologize. 

But as a numbers/stats person, it is obvious that the use of incomplete data is heavily skewing the numbers. 

there is a reason why you don’t see flu/pneumonia numbers posted in “real time” like this. there is a reason nobody seems to remember the swine flu death count. 

It’s because it is next to impossible to calculate at this speed.   And it’s always adjusted to an “estimated” amount. Because like even you said, we aren’t even testing all of the dead.  Plus we are (allegedly) counting every single deceased that was positive as a COVID case. Neither of which gives you an accurate number. 

Like my example a couple posts ago. 
All underlying conditions should maintain (roughly) same death rate as they historically have.  But you can’t possibly know that until it’s over and you look back. Then doing the math, you adjust the numbers. 

The “extra” deaths on top of those is your estimated TRUE covid death numbers. 

which simply cannot be calculated in real time with out testing/autopsy every single death. 

[COTiger]

35 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

I don’t watch news channels.

 

I'm sort of in your camp.  I get most of my news from Fox News & Google.

If I'm going to watch a late afternoon/evening news channel, it will be Fox.  My TV would blow up if I ever switched to CNN or MSNBC.

[LSUDad]

Thoughts? 
 

https://medium.com/morozko-method/the-curve-is-already-flat-2de80eed1bd0

[COTiger]

10 minutes ago, LSUDad said:

Thoughts?

11 minutes ago, LSUDad said:

Thoughts? 
 

https://medium.com/morozko-method/the-curve-is-already-flat-2de80eed1bd0

Can you summarize in one paragraph?

 

[LSUDad]

This one might be better. Shorter writeup. 
 

FROM STEVE DEACE: 

13 days ago I pointed out in The Blaze CDC said 7.1% of ALL deaths in America the week before #coronavirus mass shutdowns were from flu and pneumonia. Now, suddenly, the pneumonia rate has plummeted the more we test for SARS -2. Hmm. Wonder why?

Could it be because #coronavirus was wreaking havoc the entire winter? We just weren’t aware, panicked, or testing for it? So people with pneumonia-like symptoms were counted as having pneumonia then. Which could also be why we were above the CDC’s epidemic line for pneumonia several times maybe?

That could also explain why the models continue to be so off. The horse had already left the barn, so to speak. The virus had already gotten in, so we have the wrong baseline to begin with. And if that’s the case, why are we risking a Great Depression?

So then how to explain the recent spikes in NYC and other places if that’s the case? That’s the question I’ve been wrestling with the past two weeks, and it’s always been the hole in my theory that everything else lines up with. However, last night we may have gotten our answer — the New York Times reported we still took in as many as 40k Chinese travelers AFTER Trump’s China travel ban. In other words, we reloaded the gun. And among the hardest hit areas in NYC is Queens, which has a sizable Asian population.

It would also explain why the current spikes still aren’t as bad as projected. Because that 40k is about 20 percent of the total college kids from China (well over 300 thousand) we likely brought in back in January after Christmas break.

If this theory is true, and at the very least all the data says it’s plausible, that would mean we have been shooting mice with an elephant gun. Shutting down our country to battle something we were already battling, and even perhaps after the worst of the battle. That we caused untold damage to our economy and overall healthcare system by shutting virtually all of it down except for this battle, and far beyond what was required.

[LSUDad]

Headline:

 

CDC Tells Hospitals To List COVID as Cause of Death Even if You're Just Assuming or It Only Contributed

[Herb]

16 minutes ago, LSUDad said:

Headline:

 

CDC Tells Hospitals To List COVID as Cause of Death Even if You're Just Assuming or It Only Contributed

What objective news source is this headline from?

[Herb]

2 hours ago, COTiger said:

My TV would blow up if I ever switched to CNN or MSNBC.

I don't watch CNN or MSNBC either. Literally the only time I have watched CNN since the year 2000 was when I was recently in Sao Paulo, Brazil and the only reason I watched it was because "CNN International" was the only channel on the TV in my hotel that was in English and I was trying to get back to the U. States as quickly as I could.

I get most of my news from Google News, CSPAN, BBC, and sites similar to Google News like memeorandum.com that group news stories from a variety of sources. I do actually read a fair amount of print articles from Fox News, the New York Times, Breitbart, and others.

I actually try to get my news from very different view points and filter through what the particulars of a story are from what the opinion of the outlet is.

[dachsie]

6 hours ago, Herb said:

By the way, here is one of the Fox News "celebrity doctors" that now is publicly apologising for comparing coronaavirus to the flu and downplaying the threat to the public. 

 

https://heavy.com/news/2020/04/dr-drew-coronavirus-flu-death-threats/

 

 

fornicate him.

Herb - there were a lot of people who didn’t think this was bad in the beginning on ALL the networks. Even Dr Fauci in Jan didn’t think it was bad. And that’s because China lied and withheld information that could have helped the rest of the world be more prepared.  The only blame that should be assigned at this point should be on China.  Let’s get through this. 

[COTiger]

https://www.foxnews.com/us/uss-theodore-roosvelt-captain-tests-positive-coronavirus

I don't approve of his actions, but I'm sorry to read that he has tested positive for the virus.  I hope he pulls through.

[Herb]

42 minutes ago, COTiger said:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/uss-theodore-roosvelt-captain-tests-positive-coronavirus

I don't approve of his actions, but I'm sorry to read that he has tested positive for the virus.  I hope he pulls through.

He did NOT follow proper communications protocol and relieving him of his command was justified. Those under his command appear to have had full faith and confidence in his command, however.

A vessel at sea can easily become an incubator for illness and given the outbreak onboard, it is not altogether surprising he caught it too.

[COTiger]

5 minutes ago, Herb said:

He did NOT follow proper communications protocol and relieving him of his command was justified.

And I wrote that I don't approve of his actions.

[houtiger]

22 minutes ago, Herb said:

He did NOT follow proper communications protocol and relieving him of his command was justified. Those under his command appear to have had full faith and confidence in his command, however.

A vessel at sea can easily become an incubator for illness and given the outbreak onboard, it is not altogether surprising he caught it too.

I don't think we have all the facts on this one yet.  the guy was an Annapolis grad and rose to command a carrier, so we know he was no dummy, and a stable person.  He knew when he sent that report to people outside his chain of command that he would be relieved of duty.  Yet he did it.  Why?  I think he felt he had to do it, sacrifice his career for the sake of saving lives of his crew.  They obviously thought a lot of him when he left the ship.  It is possible that he told the higher ups and did not think they were acting fast enough, so he had to go public to put pressure on them to deal with the situation.  From my seat, that is the most logical explanation.  Unless you think he was stupid, or insane.  We'll know more in a year or two, but the military can hide a lot.

[COTiger]

6 minutes ago, houtiger said:

 We'll know more in a year or two, but the military can hide a lot.

So can news organizations & politicians. 

[LSUDad]

2 hours ago, Herb said:

What objective news source is this headline from?

https://www.westernjournal.com/cdc-tells-hospitals-list-covid-cause-death-even-just-assuming-contributed/