Coronavirus (non-sports related)

[LSUDad]

1 hour ago, COTiger said:

I prefer an overreaction to the virus rather than ignoring it.  I think it's going to get worse before it gets better.

Agree, they have to do overkill. 

[Nutriaitch]

2 hours ago, COTiger said:

I prefer an overreaction to the virus rather than ignoring it.  I think it's going to get worse before it gets better.

this is no longer an overreaction.  

we are actually almost completely shutting down the economies of the entire planet.

this is borderline lunacy.  to the point that i no longer think this has anything to do with a virus and something else fishy is going on behind the scenes.  
or they are point blank lying to us about the numbers.

Again, I preface all of this by saying I am not a doctor, nor do I work in medical field in any capacity.  I'm not in anyway shape or form saying this isn't something to take seriously, or that it doesn't exist, etc.
But what I am is a stats junkie. I'm a numbers guy. 

And the numbers that are being made public do not in anyway justify even a fraction of what we are seeing.  

This virus would have to maintain it's current global death rate (a number that has dropped significantly, and continues to drop steadily) for another 16 months just to equal the number of deaths GLOBALLY in 1.5 years what the regular old seasonal flu accomplished in 6 months in the US alone.

the Swine flu pandemic of 2009:  on the extreme low end of estimates, roughly 11% of the global population (some estimates are as high as 21%) caught it. Again, that is worldwide.  In the absolute "worst case" and "Armageddon level" countries, approximately 0.00004% have caught this virus. 
In twelve months, Swine Flu killed north of 250,000 people (some estimates are over 500,000). At its current pace (again, number that is actually dropping) this will top out somewhere below 40,000 globally in 12 months.

 

The US right now is looking at 0.0000109% of its population having been infected.
Using the latest charts extrapolated out over the course of 1 calendar year, worst case scenario is projecting it to be somewhere around 4% total.  Again in 1 calendar year.
Seasonal flu averages around 14% of the population, but does that in a 6 month window, not 12 months.

 

So the numbers just don't add up.

AT ALL.
like not even kinda sorta maybe if you squint your eyes and turn your head.

 

if this is an overreaction, it's the biggest in the history of mankind.

or, there is something they're not telling us that's pushing this along on a global scale.
 

 

[dachsie]

https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/i-thought-covid-19-was-overblown-i-was-wrong.html

[dachsie]

Ok Nootch extrapolate these numbers for us:

3 weeks ago Italy had  about 300 cases.  Today they have 27980.  They have a population of 61 million.  Their death rate from this is 7.7%

There are currently confirmed 4661 cases in the US as of this moment.  (That's not counting the ones we don't know about)  How many cases would we have in 3 weeks if we went like Italy given our population? (I suck at math so was wanting you to figure it out)

 

And remember - there are only 62,000 ventilators in the entire country and  some are being used by people not infected by the virus.

 

THAT is what we are trying to avoid.  

 

[Nutriaitch]

10 minutes ago, dachsie said:

https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/i-thought-covid-19-was-overblown-i-was-wrong.html

numbers don’t lie. 

don’t know who KevinMD is, but even his “gory, vivid example” of Italy pales in comparison to H1N1, Sars, or even the Seasonal Flu in numbers  

for something that is “more contagious than the flu”, it sure as shyte is moving at a ridiculously slower pace. It will take this shyte 38 months to infect as many people globally as the Flu does in 1 average month in America alone.   

The flu hits close to 7 million people per month here. 

7 MILLLION. Just in America. In just 1 freaking month.

this is at 182,000. on the entire planet in 3 months.

its been a minute since i’ve been to a math class, but 7 million in one month (in a country of 330 mil) is absurdly higher rate than 182,000 in 3 month (on a planet with 7 billion). 

China alone should be up around 25 million cases right now if this was simply equally as contagious as the flu.
They’re at 80,000. 

 

 

Numbers don’t lie. 

[dachsie]

KevinMD is a website of doctors who write articles - Actual physicians so I trust their information as do my colleagues.

And do you really trust China's numbers at this point?

[Herb]

Nootch,

With all due respect, do you think that it is possible that the world leaders of all nations on earth might be right about this and you might be wrong?

 

[Nutriaitch]

23 minutes ago, dachsie said:

Ok Nootch extrapolate these numbers for us:

3 weeks ago Italy had  about 300 cases.  Today they have 27980.  They have a population of 61 million.  Their death rate from this is 7.7%

There are currently confirmed 4661 cases in the US as of this moment.  (That's not counting the ones we don't know about)  How many cases would we have in 3 weeks if we went like Italy given our population? (I suck at math so was wanting you to figure it out)

 

And remember - there are only 62,000 ventilators in the entire country and  some are being used by people not infected by the virus.

 

THAT is what we are trying to avoid.  

 

 

to truly extrapolate out, you’d realistically have to do all of Europe, not just Italy. 

Italy is roughly the size of California (physical size) actually about 50,000 square miles smaller.  But with 20+ million more people crammed into that smaller space. 

Which makes for skewed numbers. 

if go with all of Europe (really close to same size as US, but with double the population crammed in) Italy then becomes our Washington State. 
a confined region whose numbers simply do not match the rest of the area. Despite being one of the quickest to Quarantine. 

California becomes our version of Germany. Basically neighbors but with a much, much lower case and almost non-existent death rate from it despite a significantly larger population (but spread out over a larger area). 

or even New York State which has more total cases than Washington State, but 1/5 the deaths. 

you can’t look at only the worst case (Italy or China). just like you can’t look at only the best cases (Germany or S. Korea). 

look at the entire picture and the numbers will tell you what’s there.  That’s why i’m using global numbers. The best, the worst, and everything in between.

Tells the most complete story. Without bias.

again, these numbers simply do not match up with the reaction. at all.  this is not even the worst “pandemic” since the turn of the century (statistically speaking).  Nor is it on par with regularly scheduled seasonal viruses that happen every year in every country.

So either the publicly available numbers are simply false, or something else is driving this right now.

 

 

[Herb]

If it is just a liberal conspiracy, maybe you should read the dire warnings from a conservative icon:

https://www.newsweek.com/newt-gingrich-i-am-italy-amid-coronavirus-crisis-america-must-act-now-act-big-opinion-1492270

 

[Nutriaitch]

1 minute ago, Herb said:

Nootch,

With all due respect, do you think that it is possible that the world leaders of all nations on earth might be right about this and you might be wrong?

 

 

No, i’m saying something with the numbers doesn’t add up. 

I’m saying that either they are lying to us about these numbers (and they are significantly worse than we are being told), or this isn’t about a virus. 

I’m not going to pretend to be in any kind of inside info loop to say which is more likely than the other because i have no clue. 

Im saying that with the info being made public so far, the reaction simply does not match up with what the numbers say.

 

[Nutriaitch]

2 minutes ago, Herb said:

If it is just a liberal conspiracy, maybe you should read the dire warnings from a conservative icon:

https://www.newsweek.com/newt-gingrich-i-am-italy-amid-coronavirus-crisis-america-must-act-now-act-big-opinion-1492270

 

 

im not a political person, so i’m not even suggesting this is a “liberal conspiracy”.

I'm not even saying that this virus isn’t serious.  

I’m saying something doesn’t add up. 

 

[Nutriaitch]

45 minutes ago, dachsie said:

And do you really trust China's numbers at this point?

 

unfortunately, it’s all i have to go off of. 

But honestly, i’m beginning to not trust ANY of the numbers right now. 

I’m not a conspiracy kook, so i can’t come up with any other explanation. 

other than they're lowballing the numbers to prevent total widespread panic.

 

[Nutriaitch]

also, be prepared for a large spike in confirmed cases in the coming week. 

this is due to ramping up testing exponentially and not necessarily due to the virus spreading any faster.  We just will be identifying people that already had it and we didn’t know. 

again, not a doctor. just using numbers. 

if we test 100 people a day and find 1 new case, then theoretically speaking if we tested 1,000 people per day we should find roughly 10 new cases. 

the math obviously won’t be that perfect, but you get my drift. 

so due to the spike in testing, a spike in positives is to be expected.

[LSUDad]

https://kfor.com/health/coronavirus/drug-used-to-originally-fight-malaria-showing-promise-in-treating-coronavirus-oklahoma-medical-research-foundation-says/amp/

[dachsie]

8 hours ago, Nutriaitch said:

 

to truly extrapolate out, you’d realistically have to do all of Europe, not just Italy. 

Italy is roughly the size of California (physical size) actually about 50,000 square miles smaller.  But with 20+ million more people crammed into that smaller space. 

Which makes for skewed numbers. 

if go with all of Europe (really close to same size as US, but with double the population crammed in) Italy then becomes our Washington State. 
a confined region whose numbers simply do not match the rest of the area. Despite being one of the quickest to Quarantine. 

California becomes our version of Germany. Basically neighbors but with a much, much lower case and almost non-existent death rate from it despite a significantly larger population (but spread out over a larger area). 

or even New York State which has more total cases than Washington State, but 1/5 the deaths. 

you can’t look at only the worst case (Italy or China). just like you can’t look at only the best cases (Germany or S. Korea). 

look at the entire picture and the numbers will tell you what’s there.  That’s why i’m using global numbers. The best, the worst, and everything in between.

Tells the most complete story. Without bias.

again, these numbers simply do not match up with the reaction. at all.  this is not even the worst “pandemic” since the turn of the century (statistically speaking).  Nor is it on par with regularly scheduled seasonal viruses that happen every year in every country.

So either the publicly available numbers are simply false, or something else is driving this right now.

 

 

I was using the example to demonstrate that we cannot get to that 62000. Or we will be picking and choosing who lives and who dies

[Herb]

9 hours ago, Nutriaitch said:

 

unfortunately, it’s all i have to go off of. 

But honestly, i’m beginning to not trust ANY of the numbers right now. 

I’m not a conspiracy kook, so i can’t come up with any other explanation. 

other than they're lowballing the numbers to prevent total widespread panic.

 

I highly honor skepticism.

Just do what needs to be done to protect your community.

[dachsie]

Well, we got out first confirmed case in Brazos county and then this morning our hospital got its first presumptive case.  And people are not staying home like they should.  The numbers will go up as more testing is done

[houtiger]

You can't compare flu statistics with corona virus stats. 

What is available is flu stats with a vaccine and effective treatment (Tamiflu).

to corona virus with no vaccine, no treatment, and with generally EXTREME measures of social distancing and quarantine of the sick, lots of hand washing and sanitizing of surroundings.  That is not apples to apples.

Italy has a bad outbreak, and from what I read, the officials told people to keep socially distant, and the Italian people did not listen.  Now the outbreak has peaked and there are not enough intensive care facilities to save the people that need that treatment.  So, doctors triage patients, and if you are not expected to survive, you don't get treated so they can try to save someone with a better chance of survival. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-ethics-speci/special-report-all-is-well-in-italy-triage-and-lies-for-virus-patients-idUSKBN2133KG

The social distancing in the US is an attempt to keep the infection rate low enough that we don't run out of intensive care beds and respirators, to accommodate all the sick people at one time.

[houtiger]

3 hours ago, dachsie said:

Well, we got out first confirmed case in Brazos county and then this morning our hospital got its first presumptive case.  And people are not staying home like they should.  The numbers will go up as more testing is done

I called my sister in Lafayette yesterday, told her "I'm grounded!".  A lot of people I know are laying low.  They closed all restaurants in Harris County except for takeout or delivery, bars and clubs are closed.  Schools are closed, gym's are closed.  All community centers closed.  We're pretty closed up.  My wife was sent home from her work today, a co-worker had dinner with his aunt last week who is a flight attendant, and she is now confirmed.  They closed the office, will have it deep cleaned, and people return to work on Thursday.  I am sure the exposed employee with self quarantine for a week or two.

[LSUDad]

In case you missed. 
 

https://tigerbait.com/s/2026/watch-lsu-hc-ed-orgeron-talks-joe-burrow-coronavirus-more-with-rich-eisen

[LSUDad]

The first shots have been given in Seattle, the hardest hit area.  Remember, more than half of the early deaths, came from Seattle , a nursing home there. The Trump Administration has put this in place in 65 days, a record. 65 days. They are moving faster than anything that has been done before. The testing and results are going through a major process. Vaccines have started in record time. NIH, is compiling these tests. 

[Nutriaitch]

 

Quote

to corona virus with no vaccine, no treatment

 

this just isn’t true. sorry. 

recovery rate is over 98% right now (and climbing).

how is that possible with “no treatment” , “no vaccine”, and our “immune systems aren’t adapted yet”?

seriously. the death rate would be that if science fiction movies if that were true. 

 

edit: you are correct in saying there is no preventative vaccine. i don’t want to be misleading in my above statement. 

[houtiger]

30 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

this just isn’t true. sorry. 

recovery rate is over 98% right now (and climbing).

how is that possible with “no treatment” , “no vaccine”, and our “immune systems aren’t adapted yet”?

seriously. the death rate would be that if science fiction movies if that were true.

Let me be more specific if you want to force the issue. 

Regarding tamiflu:

Quote

Q.  What is Tamiflu and what is it approved for?

A. Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) is an antiviral drug.  It works by attacking the flu virus to keep it from multiplying in your body and by reducing the symptoms of the flu. Tamiflu can sometimes keep you from getting the flu if you take it before you get sick.

The term "flu" refers to illness caused by the influenza virus. The flu is a respiratory infection that can cause symptoms such as fever, chills, aches and pains, cough, and sore throat. The flu can range from mild common cold symptoms, to the typical "flu" symptoms described above, to life-threatening pneumonia and other complications, including secondary bacterial infections.

Tamiflu is used to treat people 2 weeks of age and older who have the flu (influenza A and B viruses). Tamiflu is also sometimes used for prevention (prophylaxis) of the flu in people 1 year of age and older, but it is not a substitute for getting the flu vaccine.

Now, corona virus:

Quote

March 15, 2020 -

MILWAUKEE – In a week when the coronavirus closures and quarantines hit like falling dominoes – the lockdown in Italy, the empty workplaces and college campuses in the U.S., suspended sports seasons, canceled festivals – far less attention fell on the global scientific community's drive to find treatments for the new virus. 

But researchers are already suggesting strategies to help patients suffering from the virus, which is marked by fever, coughing and difficulty breathing. One treatment could be just weeks away.

<snip>

Kruse has been pursuing two treatment strategies, one of which has a long history and could be available within weeks rather than months. The quickest option is likely to be the use of antibodies from recovered COVID-19 patients. As of Saturday, there were almost 72,000 such patients worldwide. The virus has infected about 150,000, killing more than 5,500.

The use of survivor antibodies, serum therapy, dates back to 1891 when it was used successfully to treat a child with diphtheria. Since then, serum from recovered patients has been used "to stem outbreaks of viral diseases such as poliomyelitis, measles, mumps and influenza," according to a paper Friday in The Journal of Clinical Investigation.

So, in the sense that a "treatment" is directly focused on the virus, there currently are NO TREATMENTS for corona virus.

Now, in terms of alleviating the symptoms, such as difficulty breathing, yes, you can inhale a broncho dialator, or be put on a ventilator machine on intubated.  But that is not a treatment of the corona virus, it is just a treatment of the symptom that the patient is having a problem breathing. 

Tamiflu attacks the flu virus, nothing today attacks the corona virus.

Edited March 17, 2020 by houtiger

[COTiger]

32 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

 

recovery rate is over 98% right now (and climbing).

 

Link?

[LSUDad]

HOW ABOUT SOME GOOD COVID-19 NEWS? [PHIL-OSOPHY]

 

PHIL PALEOLOGOS

March 17, 2020

After a while, we get so drenched with negative coronavirus news coverage that we become waterlogged. Isn't there any good news to report on this coronavirus that's altered our lives and caused staggering financial ruination?

The short answer is yes, there are some very optimistic headlines, but finding them was like searching for a needle in a haystack.

Let 's begin with the revelation that China has closed down all of its 16 coronavirus hospitals in Wuhan because there weren't enough new cases to support them. That's a dramatic sign that things are improving. And if you want further proof that they're making progress, a 103-year-old grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for six days in Wuhan.

 

 

 

Powered by Minute Media 

 

There are some reports that doctors and researchers in India have been successful in treating COVID-19 with a combination of drugs, namely Lopinavir, Retonovir, and Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. The global medical community is scrutinizing this disclosure.

The Cleveland Clinic is leading the pack in medical facilities buying all the necessary equipment to conduct COVID-19 testing on-site, so they can get results back far quicker – in many cases, as soon as one day. The clinic said it expects other medical facilities to follow suit.

Scientists in Israel are claiming they're ready to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine. Are you starting to feel a little better yet?

Searching for other good news stories, a San Diego biotech company is developing a COVID-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and the National University of of Singapore. Plasma from newly recovered patients can treat others infected by the virus.

And finally, three Maryland coronavirus patients have fully recovered and are able to return to everyday life. That has a nice sound to it, doesn't it? Everyday life, as it was just a few weeks ago.

When writing about difficult things and darker issues, it's nice to offer some sense of hope and a light at the end of the tunnel.

Read More: How About Some Good COVID-19 News? [PHIL-OSOPHY] | https://wbsm.com/how-about-some-good-covid-19-news-phil-osophy/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral