2021 Season Predictions

[Herb]

We're looking down the start of the season. How do you think the Tigers will do in 2021?

This is simply one man's biased opinion: 

at UCLA - W
McNeese State - W
Central Michigan - W
at Mississippi State - W
Auburn - W
at Kentucky - W
Florida - W
at Ole Miss - W
at Alabama - L
Arkansas - W
Louisiana Monroe - W
Texas A&M - W

I see an 11-1 season. Might need a new pair of purple & gold glasses, though.

Aside from Alabama, the only other possible loss I see is - unfortunately - Ole Miss, but I think we wind up winning that one. Ole Miss will have the best QB we will face all year but he's throwing into a tree shredder in LSU's secondary.

I don't see us losing to Florida in Death Valley given what Florida lost and LSU gained in terms of talent from last year. We will NOT lose to Texas A&M 2 years in a row.

[houtiger]

My prediction, going back to the spring, has been that we go 10-2.  We're coming back from 5-5.  The o-line sucked in 2020 and most of them return, will a year of additional experience help, plus the new o-line coach?  Our o-line was suspect in 2018, they mostly returned, and they won the Joe Moore award in 2019, so a big improvement is possible in one year, even with the same players.  Our wide receivers could be better this year than 2020, with the incoming freshmen.  We need improvement at LB and secondary, I think the coaches will improve it, it can't be worse.  Johnson could have a bad game as a soph and cost us one.  But I'm going to rate him even with Brennan and leave the team at 10-2.

aTm lost a lot, Bama lost a lot but they have recruited insanely and will be tough.  I'll count a loss to Bama, and one out of Fla. and Auburn.  I think we'll beat aTm.

Could everything fall into place and we go 12-0 or 11-1.  Yes, Johnson could be everything and a bowl of cherries. 

But a lot has to fall in place.  My base case remains 10-2.

Could a new coach turn out to be a dud, or Johnson turns out to be a good sophomore QB but not superman, or injuries hit and we fall to 9-3, yes, that could happen also.

[Herb]

I don't look at Johnson to be a world beater.  All we need him to be is a good field manager and let his receivers make him look good. 

I look at the Florida game last year as an indicator that Johnson was rounding into his own.

I'm glad you brought up Auburn, because I look at that game as a potential 'trap' game where a 1st year head coach might be looking to make a statement (and SEC refs might help him). I had a hard time with whether that would be a win or a loss for us...eventually I felt the magic of Tiger Stadium would push that into the 'W' column for us.

Overall, I think the biggest question for the season will be whether the defense comes out of the gates "getting" the new system or if once we get past UCLA the "practice" games will mask defensive issues that get exposed once we start hitting the SEC teams on the schedule.

[cadillacattack]

Don't think you need to worry about Auburn this year, especially in BR ..... you'll steamroll our O-Line.

But I disagree with your prediction on TAMU.  They're my pick to win the SEC this season, and I don't see LSU beating them.  They are a very solid team this season, and not to be taken lightly .... just my dos centavos 

[houtiger]

1 hour ago, cadillacattack said:

Don't think you need to worry about Auburn this year, especially in BR ..... you'll steamroll our O-Line.

But I disagree with your prediction on TAMU.  They're my pick to win the SEC this season, and I don't see LSU beating them.  They are a very solid team this season, and not to be taken lightly .... just my dos centavos 

It's always good to see you Caddy!!!  What do you predict for Auburn's record this season?  Were you glad to see Malzhan go?

What do you think about TJ Finley?  Ya'll had 5 games of tape to see what he could do as a freshman.  He's big, got a BIG arm, not very mobile.  I said last year, when he throws his best ball, he throws the best ball on the team.  Part of the problem was when he throws his worst ball, it was the worst of the worst on the team.  He could settle down as he gets more experience and coaching, like most players do, they leave college better than they entered.

[COTiger]

Vegas odds makers has us 8.5 over/under for wins.  I think that number is pretty much spot on.

[Herb]

25 minutes ago, COTiger said:

Vegas odds makers has us 8.5 over/under for wins.  I think that number is pretty much spot on.

So does that mean like 9 wins?  or is it like 85% of 12 games they see us winning?

I honestly don't bet, so I am admittedly ignorant as to what that means.

[COTiger]

Regular season games only.  If LSU wins 8 games or less & you bet the under you win.  If LSU wins 9 games or more & you bet the over you win.

[Hatchertiger]

On 8/13/2021 at 12:25 PM, cadillacattack said:

  TAMU.  They're my pick to win the SEC this season, 

A lot of sports writers are high on Georgia this year ... seams like they are every year.  LSU has many questions to answer after last year. New OC and  DC. How will they perform when the bullets are flying?  BUT we ARE going to beat The Cult this year. They will feel pain.

Edited August 16, 2021 by Hatchertiger

[cadillacattack]

On 8/13/2021 at 3:24 PM, houtiger said:

It's always good to see you Caddy!!!  What do you predict for Auburn's record this season?  Were you glad to see Malzhan go?

What do you think about TJ Finley?  Ya'll had 5 games of tape to see what he could do as a freshman.  He's big, got a BIG arm, not very mobile.  I said last year, when he throws his best ball, he throws the best ball on the team.  Part of the problem was when he throws his worst ball, it was the worst of the worst on the team.  He could settle down as he gets more experience and coaching, like most players do, they leave college better than they entered.

Always good catching up with y’all.

I’m not a fan of changing coaches …. But it was time for Malzahn to go. He had become entirely to predictable in his game planning, and entirely to complacent with recruiting.  Harsin will bring much needed improvement, particularly with preparation and development. To me, the only thing that remains to be seen is whether he can recruit in the Deep South. 
Auburn’s biggest problem is that we are the meat in the geographic sandwich … between Nick Saban and Kirby Smart …. and when it comes to Recruiting, that’s a very dangerous place to be in the Deep South. My hope is that Harsin can recruit some key talent from out West to fill in some key gaps in the initial 2 years of his tenure…. and revitalize the Auburn brand in the process.

Harsin inherited a depleted cupboard … in the single most important element in a line of scrimmage league … the trenches.  Our defense had the worst 3rd down conversion allowed of ANY SEC program last season at 50.3% …. that’s the first time any SEC program allowed more than half of 3rd down conversions since the Kentucky team in 2012. Both lines need to be rebuilt with the quality depth that is a prerequisite to SEC success.

Regarding TJ, …. I like the kid, and I think he will thrive under Harsin/Bobo’s development program,which heavily focuses on footwork and throwing fundamentals. The real question is whether he can unseat the starter for PT …. Same challenge he had in Baton Rouge. Nix has already shown significant progress, which is notable since he never improved at anything under Malzahn. The good news is that TJ should see some time with the ones in AU’s first 3 games, so we’ll see for ourselves.

I’ve got Auburn going 7-5, but it’s difficult to predict because of the unknowns about Harsin.   Gonna’ be interesting……

Edited August 15, 2021 by cadillacattack

[houtiger]

1 hour ago, cadillacattack said:

Always good catching up with y’all.

Thanks for a great report.  It's interesting what you say about the linemen.  I remember what a terrific d-line you had as recent as 2019, that d-line was maybe the best we faced that year.

Your comments about Malzahn sound like ours about Les Miles near the end.  He had a lot of good will after playing for the natty after 2011, except the offensive performance in that game was offensive.  His recruiting slipped, the offense never improved.  It was time to make a change.

 I liked most of what I saw with TJ, and I think the issues he had can be fixed with coaching and experience, so I think he has a nice upside.  He does have a rocket for an arm and it didn't look like he had any fear of throwing into a small window, but maybe he should have had a bit more judgment sometimes.  But he has three more seasons and I think that will come.  I'll keep an eye peeled on the guy.

Come by often, and good luck, except against us!

[cadillacattack]

here's a recent article on TJ Finley you might enjoy, houtiger ....

https://247sports.com/college/auburn/board/102332/Contents/tj-finley-a-great-changeup-for-auburn-qb-room-169005112/?page=1

[Fishhead]

On 8/13/2021 at 12:25 PM, cadillacattack said:

Don't think you need to worry about Auburn this year, especially in BR ..... you'll steamroll our O-Line.

But I disagree with your prediction on TAMU.  They're my pick to win the SEC this season, and I don't see LSU beating them.  They are a very solid team this season, and not to be taken lightly .... just my dos centavos 

Hey Caddy!

Regarding TAMU, I think they're very solid in the trenches and that means something. Elko is a helluva DC, I think they're solid there. They have a good RB.

Now, let's get to their passing game. 

They are replacing an awful, yet experienced QB in Mond. But with who?

And to whom will he throw? They have no real threats at WR. I see a dropoff from TAMU tbh. Jimbo doesn't have Jameis, he ain't winning the division, much less the conference. 

[Fishhead]

On 8/12/2021 at 11:30 PM, Herb said:

 

Aside from Alabama, the only other possible loss I see is - unfortunately - Ole Miss, but I think we wind up winning that one. Ole Miss will have the best QB we will face all year but he's throwing into a tree shredder in LSU's secondary.

 

To be clear,  Kiffin at OM warrants concern. But that QB you speak of threw 14 interceptions to TWO teams last year and pretty much Jay Ward is his favorite target. 

[Herb]

1 hour ago, Fishhead said:

To be clear,  Kiffin at OM warrants concern. But that QB you speak of threw 14 interceptions to TWO teams last year and pretty much Jay Ward is his favorite target. 

Hence the analogy between LSU's secondary and a tree shredder. Lol.

[Fishhead]

28 minutes ago, Herb said:

Hence the analogy between LSU's secondary and a tree shredder. Lol.

But Arkansas'??

[Herb]

3 hours ago, Fishhead said:

But Arkansas'??

I pretty much think we'll beat Ar-Kansas pretty handily. In fact, that might be Nussmeier's coming out party.

[Fishhead]

2 hours ago, Herb said:

I pretty much think we'll beat Ar-Kansas pretty handily. In fact, that might be Nussmeier's coming out party.

I meant Corral threw 7 picks against Arkansas lol

6 in reality, 5 against us with another "fumble" that could've been considered a pick. 

 

To be honest, I do believe our secondary is gonna be really stout (assuming health).  But we'll beat Ole Mrs. based on the DL.  That's how we'll beat everyone we beat, IMO.