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LSU vs Alabama 2018


houtiger

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#1 Alabama vs #4 LSU in Baton Rouge on 11/3 at 7 PM.

LSU opened a 14 pt. underdog.

What ya got?  Can we beat the spread?  Can we straight up win the game?  The winner of the game probably wins the West.

Alabama's best win is against Tex. A&M, 45 - 23.  Our D is better than Aggies D, but I think our offenses are comparable.  Folks think the Inbred Gumps secondary is not as good as recent years, particularly not as good as last year.  Will our gameplan favor the pass this year?  We'll have to run enough to keep them honest, keep the pass rush off of Burrow.  LSU team has faced top ranked competition and battled and usually won.  Not always pretty, but against top competition, a win is a win.  Our field goal kicking is better than last year.

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um, i think you have your units for A&M backwards. 

their defense is #22 nationally, ours is #25

their offense is #15 while ours is #85. 

 

Alabama’s defense this year is not on par with their typical D from years past. And our offense is better than we’ve been. 

But by the same token, their offense is now a LOT better than it has been in recent years. And i think our D is a slight tick below what we’ve come to expect

 

so i think this game will look quite different than typical LSU vs Alabama game. 

it will be higher scoring than normal. if it turns into a track meet shootout, i don’t know if we’re equipped to keep up. 

if we can keep it lower scoring, our Defense and special teams swings the advantage our way. 

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12 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

um, i think you have your units for A&M backwards. 

their defense is #22 nationally, ours is #25

their offense is #15 while ours is #85.

I count these national ranks as somewhat indicative, but certainly not the end and the all.  I look at the competition these were earned against, and LSU has faced 5 ranked teams to Aggies 4 (although they have faced #1 and 2).  I would take our defense over theirs. 

Now passing, Kellen Monde has a great arm and their passing looks better than ours.  Running the ball I would give the edge to us.

Another thing that affects these numbers is game situations.  Against Moo St. last week, we faced bad weather and with the lead we had and State's inability to generate offense, we played a very conservative game and ground out a win.  We weren't playing for statistics, we played to win, and I'm ok with that.

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21 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

 as far as who has played who, they played more top 15 defenses than we have. 

they’ve also faced more top 15 offenses than we have. 

Georgia ranks higher nationally than LSU on both offense and defense.  What does it prove?  Nothing.  We beat them handily (not that I'm bragging, before the season I had it down as a loss, since they kept their QB and were ahead of Inbred Gumps in the nat. championship game at the half).  The rankings are based on who you played, and even game situations come into play.  They are some kind of indicator, and probably bear more significance the deeper into the season we go, but I always consider the schedule as a huge variable in these type rankings.

Against Inbred Gumps, Tua looks unbelievable, his touch on the long ball, to Jerry Juede and Devonta Lee is amazing.  I also notice that nobody has laid a finger on him, on those beautiful long throws, he has had TIME, lots of it.  I know Inbred Gumps has a great o-line.  I think that will be the key to the game, and slowing Inbred Gumps down on offense.  Can we get pressure on Tua.  If not, we lose.  Can they run the ball down our throats if they have too?  That would remain to be seen, but if they have time to throw and connect on the long ball, they will win.  Then again, our secondary is the best they have played so far.  That could (should) change their success ratio.  But if Gready, Fulton, and Kary Vincent can stay with the Inbred Gumps receivers, that would be something Inbred Gumps hasn't seen yet this year.

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dude, we’ll debate who is better than who when we get to A&M week.  I was merely pointing out that our defenses are a lot more similar (quality wise) than our offenses are.  That’s it. We’re deep enough into the schedule to offset any one game quirks.

so on to the game we’re actually playing.

this Alabama team is different than any we’ve seen lately. 

Tua will most likely have time to throw, because we’re really not an aggressive pass rush team and haven’t been all year. 

HOWEVER, our Secondary is the best they’ll see all year. Which should make for a really exciting matchup.  

they most likely have some success running the ball because we can’t just stack the box against that offense. I don’t think they be able to just run it down our throats, but i also don’t think we’ll just shut them down with it either. 

 

my biggest concern is the emotion.

this is shaping up to be the most heated game we’ve had with them in my lifetime. 

yeah it’s always intense, but this year there is a LOT more anger and hate involved than i ever saw. 

can we maintain that emotion for 60 minutes? because that’s what it’s gonna take.  Can’t just be a burst early then drain ourselves completely and run out of steam. 

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15 hours ago, Nutriaitch said:

my biggest concern is the emotion.

this is shaping up to be the most heated game we’ve had with them in my lifetime. 

yeah it’s always intense, but this year there is a LOT more anger and hate involved than i ever saw. 

can we maintain that emotion for 60 minutes? because that’s what it’s gonna take.  Can’t just be a burst early then drain ourselves completely and run out of steam. 

Agree.  One of my concerns will be at the start of the second half, what will Devin White be like?  He'll  be mad as hell for being forced to sit the first half.  I hope he's not expended his mental energy in anger, I could see myself doing that.  He will need to take it very easy and relax himself the first half, and that will not be easy.  At the beginning of the second half, he will be sky high.  I hope he's not too jacked up and trying too hard and makes a mental mistake.  He's a smart guy, QB of the defense, and I think he will be fine, but there is a risk that he comes out too high.  I hope the defense can keep it close until Devin joins in the second half.  You know they will run at his replacement (Queen I suppose), and try to throw to a RB or tight end to see if replacement can cover.

While our secondary will be the best they will see, they probably have the best receiver corp in the nation as a group, and that will be the best we will see.  The question will be, who wins the battles?  Just because we have the best secondary does not mean we are better than their receivers who always have the advantage of knowing where they are supposed to go.  I expect they will win some battles, and we will win some battles, and the game will depend on who wins the most battles.

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The crowd will have the opportunity to truly impact this game. 

Special teams may become critical and that's to our advantage. The team has to play well enough to bring that advantage into play though

Regarding White, his demeanor upon return in the 2nd half depends greatly on how the first half goes. The crowd will be insane if we're close or even ahead at the start of the 3rd q with white jogging out of that tunnel. 

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The coaches will have to do a great job keeping ALL of the guys focused.  Too much of the focus cannot flow to Devin, each player has a job to do and they need to be focused on their coaching and their job.   Coming out for the 3rd qtr. will be emotional, getting the emotional leader of the D back, but the players need to enjoy it, but keep their individual focus.  And they will have to go to war for the full 60 minutes.

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I am certain it was decided at least a week ago, if not two, gameday would be here. It just wasn't announced. This is the game that has been hyped for a while, and not just in the sec. 

Gameday, LSU salutes, and Tuscaloosa U. It is gonna be a madhouse, and parking a cluster duck.

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@LsuFBallTruth
#Alabama schedule up to this point...?

1. Louisville 2-6
2. Arkansas State 4-4
3. Ole Piss 5-3
4. Texas A&M 5-3
5. LA-Lafayette 4-4
6. Arkansas 2-7
7. Missouri 4-4
8. Tennessee 3-5

How many power 5 teams would be undefeated if they played this schedule?

LSU Schedule 

Miami   5-3

La Tech. 6-2

Se La.  3-6

Auburn 5-3

Ole Piss 5-3

Fla.     6-2

UGA.  7-1

Moo U.  5-3

 

LSU opponents records totals 42-23, Inbred Gumps’s 29-36. 

Inbred Gumps, 2 teams above .500

LSU, 7 teams above .500

 

Just by the numbers. 

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On 10/25/2018 at 1:36 PM, Nutriaitch said:

it will be higher scoring than normal. if it turns into a track meet shootout, i don’t know if we’re equipped to keep up. 

if we can keep it lower scoring, our Defense and special teams swings the advantage our way. 

Pretty much what I’ve been thinking. If the D keeps Inbred Gumps around 21-28 points I think we can win this.

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