LSU 2022 Football Season Record - What's Your Prediction?

[houtiger]

LSUDad said the Vegas over / under is 6.5.  Josh Pate this week has LSU fifth in the SEC west, best possible record of 9-3 likely record of 7-5.  He said BK did the best he could to shore up the CB position, but there are no stars back there and LSU will be torched by teams with two or three good receivers.

After the spring, my vote was 8-4.  I listened to a lot of coaches interviews and see how well they have worked together on the recruiting trail.  I hear about significant progress on the strength and nutrition program, and hear about players "transforming their bodies".  I think the discipline on the team will be better.

I've upgraded to 9-3.

What cha got?

[COTiger]

8 - 4

[Hatchertiger]

8-4 b/c there is so much "new" with this team. 

[dachsie]

I'm going to say 8-4 as well

[Herb]

At least 8 wins.

The pundits can all go pound sand.

[houtiger]

A really good d-line can make the CB job easier by not giving a QB time to look around.  I hear we have a really good d-line.

[Hatchertiger]

To me the question is not the talent but can all these new players and pieces come around and put it all together? Football is a team sport. 

[Fishhead]

I'm at 8-4 myself.  

I'm impressed with the reality on GDT.  Visit TD or 247 and say 8-4 and they'll downvote you to oblivion because you didn't say 10 wins or more.  They'll be the ones calling for Kelly's head after the first loss.  

I look at this like Kirby Smart at UGA.  Inherited a fairly talented roster, but broken chemistry.  Recruited like a madman building a roster, and now has a NCG appearance and a 'ship.  Kelly will likely do even better in the long run, because he was already a great coach while Kirby was just getting his feet wet in the first couple years.  But Kelly shouldn't expect to take the pile of shyte O left him and win the SEC right away.  We had 40 players for the bowl game just a few months ago.  

[Herb]

My outlook on the season is kind of like a balance scale.

On one side I think the Tigers are better conditioned physically and mentally then they have been since the end of the Saban era. Unlike the past two coaching regimes, Kelly is balancing the players' football life with priorities outside of football (mental well being, grades, quality sleep, etc.) and has instilled a level of professionalism that is well overdue.

The team is also entering the season very much injury free, which is directly tied to improved physical conditioning.  Hopefully, that sustains through the season and we remain a relatively injury-free team. (I'm enough of a realist to realize that injuries will always be a part of the game and we WILL have some unfortunate breaks during the season.)

This is tied to the other side of the 'balance scale': LSU has thin depth at some positions and injuries in those areas of the team will be problematic. We have to keep in the front of our mind that we were in a 50+ scholarship deficit when we last took to the field. Polian and Kelly did a tremendous job to 'restock the cupboard' in terms of shoring up holes in the roster. 

But let's be clear...many of those players might be only average or slightly above average when compared to counterparts in the SEC. (I'll probably get roasted for this and I hope I am proven 100% wrong by on field play.) This is why - moving forward - Kelly and his staff will primarily build the team through solid recruiting and rely less on the portal (though, there may be some semi-marquis players that enter the portal and come here).

Any injury at positions we're thin at could be very problematic and have direct impact on our win-loss record. Positions like WR would be less affected than positions like RB, OL, DB, etc.,. 

I still think we'll win at least 8 games, but that scale could easily tip either way.

[houtiger]

There is a big question at the QB position.  Not just who the starter will be (we find out soon), but how effective will that QB be at running the offense?  Brennan came in third, so we can hope the new starter will look more effective that Brennan in 2020.

Here's Dandy Don's projected depth chart:

https://www.dandydon.com/lsu-football-depth-chart-2022/

The position of concern is CB to me.  Several ULL and McNeese guys.  A Big 12 CB, how good is that guy really, they are not known for defense.  I hope we can develop them physically and coach them up, but I'm concerned and concerned about depth.  Safety position looks good, so does LB.

[Nutriaitch]

 

15 hours ago, houtiger said:

Brennan came in third, so we can hope the new starter will look more effective that Brennan in 2020.

Brennan may no longer look like 2020 Brennan.

He had a major injury (would have had the surgery named after him) in 2020, and also missed all of last year due to another.

2 years out of the game and with limited strength & conditioning due to rehab, it’s not unthinkable that he could very well have regressed significantly. 

[houtiger]

18 minutes ago, Nutriaitch said:

Brennan may no longer look like 2020 Brennan.

He had a major injury (would have had the surgery named after him) in 2020, and also missed all of last year due to another.

2 years out of the game and with limited strength & conditioning due to rehab, it’s not unthinkable that he could very well have regressed significantly. 

All true.  But my concern was not Brennan, he's gone.  The problem is that none of the info above is a ringing endorsement of the QB's here, and the one who wins the job.  Hence my concern.

Daniels has 3 years of experience, let's hope we get 2019 Daniels, not 2021 Daniels.

Bottom line, we don't have a proven stud QB going into the season.  That's not usually a prescription for a championship year.  Maybe one steps forward, but competent play at the QB spot will always be a determinant of how good the year will go.

 

[Nutriaitch]

33 minutes ago, houtiger said:

All true.  But my concern was not Brennan, he's gone.  The problem is that none of the info above is a ringing endorsement of the QB's here, and the one who wins the job.  Hence my concern.

Understood.

Just pointing out that we don't know if they beat out a 2020 level Brennan, or if 2022 Brennan is now a shell of his former self. Or if it's just Brennan's lack of mobility that puts him at a disadvantage in this system.

Most likely aspects of all 3 are probably factors in that decision.  As well as Brennan allegedly not being "all in" this year.

33 minutes ago, houtiger said:

Daniels has 3 years of experience, let's hope we get 2019 Daniels, not 2021 Daniels.

What gives me some level of confidence is the weapons he has around him this year.  We have guys that run crisp routes, have speed and athleticism, and can go up and win the 50/50 balls. I don't know if he truly had that at Arizona State.
The O-Line will determine if he has the opportunity to get the ball to them.

33 minutes ago, houtiger said:

Bottom line, we don't have a proven stud QB going into the season.  That's not usually a prescription for a championship year.  Maybe one steps forward, but competent play at the QB spot will always be a determinant of how good the year will go.

If it makes you feel better, neither Mauck nor Flynn were "proven studs" going into their Championship seasons. 
Mauck was a 43 year old dentist that had failed in minor league baseball. 
Lot of people figured Perrilloux would pass up Flynn by mid/late September

And while Burrow was good in 2018, i don't think anybody realistically saw that he would be the greatest to ever do it going into 2019.

[LSUDad]

8-4, but I’d like to see a game first. 

[houtiger]

4 hours ago, Nutriaitch said:

Understood.

Just pointing out that we don't know if they beat out a 2020 level Brennan, or if 2022 Brennan is now a shell of his former self. Or if it's just Brennan's lack of mobility that puts him at a disadvantage in this system.

Most likely aspects of all 3 are probably factors in that decision.  As well as Brennan allegedly not being "all in" this year.

What gives me some level of confidence is the weapons he has around him this year.  We have guys that run crisp routes, have speed and athleticism, and can go up and win the 50/50 balls. I don't know if he truly had that at Arizona State.
The O-Line will determine if he has the opportunity to get the ball to them.

If it makes you feel better, neither Mauck nor Flynn were "proven studs" going into their Championship seasons. 
Mauck was a 43 year old dentist that had failed in minor league baseball. 
Lot of people figured Perrilloux would pass up Flynn by mid/late September

And while Burrow was good in 2018, i don't think anybody realistically saw that he would be the greatest to ever do it going into 2019.

Good post.  We've also had a lot of disappointments at QB.  I hope someone "emerges".

[Herb]

20 hours ago, Nutriaitch said:

And while Burrow was good in 2018, i don't think anybody realistically saw that he would be the greatest to ever do it going into 2019.

Except for the lone guy around here that predicted Brian Kelly would be our next coach.

[COTiger]

On 8/31/2022 at 12:36 PM, LSUDad said:

8-4, but I’d like to see a game first. 

+1

[Herb]

I wanted to resurrect this topic given that we are now 6-2 on the year and our remaining schedule is:
 

• Alabama
• Arkansas
• UAB
• Texas A&M

We have a realistic chance of being 9-3 before the season is over, with an outside chance of winning out the season and winding up 10-2.

My hunch is that we lose to Alabama and win the last 3.

Arkansas could very well be a trap game. Say what you want about Arky, but Pittman is a very good coach.

I'll stick with my original prediction that we "win at least 8 games" (notice how I hedged a little when I made my prediction ).

I'd love for us to finish 9-3 and be in a significant bowl game. I'd be ecstatic with 8 wins and a bowl. I don't see us winning only one out of our last 4, but honestly I'd only be mildly disappointed given the state of the program after K-State had their way with us at the end of last season.

[Hatchertiger]

2021 v. 2022 Kelly doing more with less talent. In the interest of full disclosure, I NEVER liked Brian Kelly.  Had nothing to do with his coaching, it was more about his personality and the way he left Cincy. But he's our coach now and I fully support him until he gives me a good reason not to.

 

 

[houtiger]

I originally thought 8-4 based on talent and some better coaching.  I upgraded to 9-3 before the season started, based on the excellent organization that I saw going on, and BK overall knowledge of the game.  I was impressed that he seemed to know intricacies of every position on the field, and an ability to tie it all together.  He seemed to be bringing more discipline to the team.  I'll admit, 4 games in, I thought I should have stuck with 8-4.  But, the team has LEARNED, they've PROGRESSED, and they are APPLYING the lessons on the field.  They MIGHT go 9-3, at least I hope so, and that would be a GREAT coaching job by Kelly and his entire staff.  QB and o-line are where I see the most improvement.  And the defensive secondary coach seems to be doing a very good job with almost all transfers.  We don't have Stingley or Tre White or Donte Jackson back there.

[LSUDad]

On 8/31/2022 at 2:36 PM, LSUDad said:

8-4, but I’d like to see a game first. 

From the looks of things we have a shot at 8-4, 9-3 or the case is still open. This was known to be a rebuilding year, to be left with such a depleted roster, one I’ve never see at LSU. What Kelly has done, is nothing short of unreal. To take such a cluster and revive this team, culture, environment. You can count on one hand the coaches that could have done this. 
 

It’s going to be fun once Kelly gets his players into the fold. House has done a great job, how long he stays? He will get offers, would like to keep him at least another year. Denbrock is close on what he needs and what he wants to run. They are still expanding the playbook. 
Special Teams, still a work in progress. 
 

Oh, one more win, I’ll collect my winnings. LSU was 6.5 on games this year! 

[Herb]

I'm actually impressed with everyone's preseason predictions here. We have a pretty knowledgeable group of members hanging around.

[LSUDad]

22 minutes ago, Herb said:

I'm actually impressed with everyone's preseason predictions here. We have a pretty knowledgeable group of members hanging around.

I think most didn’t know aTm was going to be this bad, I had seen their Spring game a few times. My friends that coached and played at aTm, had much of the same opinion, they were lacking at a number of key positions. I talked with one Saturday, on my drive to Tiger Stadium. Jimbo’s got a major cluster over there. Gonna see how that one washes out. The natives are restless. 
 

Some wanted Sunbelt Billy, I wasn’t in that group. He had less to rebuild that Kelly. 
 

Barn and Ark, both haven’t been great. 
 

It has been a really good season, enjoyable. 

[houtiger]

On 10/23/2022 at 10:31 AM, Herb said:

My hunch is that we lose to Alabama and win the last 3.

Going 3-1 over that schedule would be outstanding, and an outstanding coaching job by Kelly (who put the staff together) and the staff.  I'll even take back what I said about Brad Davis a few weeks ago.

I had no real idea on Kelly when he showed up.  He seemed to be usually good, never real bad.  But, he may be better than just "good", he is doing a very good job this season.  He's had a lot of moving parts, and he's got them cohesively stitched into an effective team.

I'm not predicting a win over Gumps, but I hope for a competitive contest.

1 hour ago, LSUDad said:

It has been a really good season, enjoyable. 

Enjoyable is a good word.  I've enjoyed the season.  The team fights and is competitive.  You start with that.  The team seems to respond to good coaching and they have improved.

[Big T]

Has Gumps found their identity yet? have we? I think the gumps are gettable but we can't get too far upfield on that qb of theirs. That dude is slicker than owl poop on a sycamore limb. I just saw somewhere that we are currently a 16.5 point dog in our own yard. That is too many.