Sugar Bowl for LSU?

[Herb]

 

 

I might be wrong on some or all of this, so feel free to correct me. 

 

I don't think we need Ole Miss to lose to Alabama.

 

For "in conference" records we have the same W/L record as Ole Miss (and Alabama) but we hold the tie breaker over them (and Alabama) by virtue of beating both of them. At the end of the day, I am fairly certain that for the SEC Championship game they select the teams with the best conference records in each division and do not consider each teams overall won/loss record. Only conference records count.

 

We do need to win out since 2 of our last 3 games are SEC West opponents, though. But, I think that technically we could lose to UAB since that would not affect our SEC record. (Won't happen.)

 

If we win out, We will go to the SEC CG as SEC West champions and face Georgia. Even if we lost the SEC CG, we'd probably still wind up in the Sugar Bowl over Tennessee - despite the fact that the Vols beat us. At that point, we would be SEC Champion "runner up" since TN would not have made the SEC Championship Game because they were not SEC East champions.

 

This is the part I am fuzzy about...unless we beat UGA, in all likelihood they will be one of the 4 playoff seeds. I think the Sugar Bowl then selects the SEC team that is next highest in the SEC ranking hierarchy  to represent the SEC in the Sugar Bowl.

 

Again - if we are SEC Champion "runner up" (by virtue of being the SEC West champions but still losing the SEC CG) I think the SB Committee selects LSU even if Tennessee has a better won/loss record than us and despite the fact they also beat us.  Again, I might be wrong and the SB Committee might be able to choose the Vols over us for the Sugar Bowl.

 

Please interject if I am wrong here, but I think our floor for a bowl game right now is the Sugar Bowl.

[Fishhead]

In actuality, about the only way lsu doesn't make the SECCG is to lose their remaining SEC gameS

Think bigger...we can make the playoff

[Nutriaitch]

30 minutes ago, Herb said:

 

 

I might be wrong on some or all of this, so feel free to correct me. 

 

I don't think we need Ole Miss to lose to Alabama.

 

For "in conference" records we have the same W/L record as Ole Miss (and Alabama) but we hold the tie breaker over them (and Alabama) by virtue of beating both of them. At the end of the day, I am fairly certain that for the SEC Championship game they select the teams with the best conference records in each division and do not consider each teams overall won/loss record. Only conference records count.

 

We do need to win out since 2 of our last 3 games are SEC West opponents, though. But, I think that technically we could lose to UAB since that would not affect our SEC record. (Won't happen.)

 

If we win out, We will go to the SEC CG as SEC West champions and face Georgia. Even if we lost the SEC CG, we'd probably still wind up in the Sugar Bowl over Tennessee - despite the fact that the Vols beat us. At that point, we would be SEC Champion "runner up" since TN would not have made the SEC Championship Game because they were not SEC East champions.

 

This is the part I am fuzzy about...unless we beat UGA, in all likelihood they will be one of the 4 playoff seeds. I think the Sugar Bowl then selects the SEC team that is next highest in the SEC ranking hierarchy  to represent the SEC in the Sugar Bowl.

 

Again - if we are SEC Champion "runner up" (by virtue of being the SEC West champions but still losing the SEC CG) I think the SB Committee selects LSU even if Tennessee has a better won/loss record than us and despite the fact they also beat us.  Again, I might be wrong and the SB Committee might be able to choose the Vols over us for the Sugar Bowl.

 

Please interject if I am wrong here, but I think our floor for a bowl game right now is the Sugar Bowl.

we don’t need them to lose again for us to win the west. 

for us to clinch it next week we need them to lose. 

7 minutes ago, Fishhead said:

In actuality, about the only way lsu doesn't make the SECCG is to lose their remaining SEC gameS

Think bigger...we can make the playoff

if Ole Miss doesn’t drop another one, we have to win both. 

[Herb]

11 minutes ago, Fishhead said:

In actuality, about the only way lsu doesn't make the SECCG is to lose their remaining SEC gameS

Think bigger...we can make the playoff

We can make the playoff (which is why I said I think our "floor" is the Sugar Bowl). We'd need some help to get there, but you are correct that our ceiling is the playoffs.

The barrier to the CFP for any 2-loss team is that a flawed human selection committee chooses the 4 playoff teams. They are prone to bias and can be influenced by criticism in their selection process. 

Selections to major bowls are more cut and dry because of conference tie-ins. For the Sugar Bowl the selection is like: "SEC Conference Champion gets selected for this bowl unless they are selected for the playoff, in which case SEC Team #2 gets selected."  It's all in the details of how "SEC team #2" is determined.

[Herb]

After we lost to FSU in the season opener, did any LSU fan think we'd have a shot at a 'New Year's Six' bowl?

I'm loving where this program is and where it is heading!

[Nutriaitch]

2 minutes ago, Herb said:

We can make the playoff (which is why I said I think our "floor" is the Sugar Bowl). We'd need some help to get there, but you are correct that our ceiling is the playoffs.

The barrier to the CFP for any 2-loss team is that a flawed human selection committee chooses the 4 playoff teams. They are prone to bias and can be influenced by criticism in their selection process. 

Selections to major bowls are more cut and dry because of conference tie-ins. For the Sugar Bowl the selection is like: "SEC Conference Champion gets selected for this bowl unless they are selected for the playoff, in which case SEC Team #2 gets selected."  It's all in the details of how "SEC team #2" is determined.

the barrier for a 2 loss team is that they have 2 losses. 

it’s what makes college football better than every other sport. you have to win. period. 

[Hatchertiger]

Chris Fowler asked Herbie if LSU makes the playoffs if we win out and he basically said don't see how you keep them out. He's not on the committee so its academic. Still have to take care of business. I'd prefer that we not back into the SECCG.

Edited November 6, 2022 by Hatchertiger

[houtiger]

By all rights, we will be favored over Arky and aTm.  As Hatch says, then we have to take care of business and actually win those games.  LSU may be the hottest team in Nov., we'll see, but I suspect the CFP voters would like to see the playoff be more balanced by conference, and LSU with 2 losses gives them the excuse to leave us out.  Now, if LSU beat Ga. in the SECCG, well that would change things.  It comes down to the SECCG.

[Fishhead]

Yeah if we get through the SECCG with 2 losses, we're playoff bound. Question will be about UGA/TN

 

[Nutriaitch]

2 minutes ago, Fishhead said:

Yeah if we get through the SECCG with 2 losses, we're playoff bound. Question will be about UGA/TN

 

you got more confidence in the committee than i do.