Nutriaitch Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 A thread discussing who (IMO) needs to win/lose to help secure a CFP spot for LSU Obviously, step 1 is that LSU needs to win out. period. But or the rest of the top tier, here is my best breakdown. 1. UGA: home vs Georgia Tech ; SEC CG. Them losing to Tech is not necessarily a requirement, but if there is one spot left between us and them, i'd feel a LOT better if they had the same number of losses as us than if they were sitting there as defending champs with fewer losses. 2/3. tOSU/Michigan: play each other today (@ tOSU) ; B1G Championship game. tOSU has a much better SOS so far. meaning if Michigan squeaks by, t OSU could possibly still wiggle their way into the CFP. Best case for us is tOSU win comfortably (at least 2 scores) and smacks whoever wins the west, looking like Iowa. 4. TCU: home vs Iowa St. ; Big XII CG. pretty simple. they need to drop a game. doesn't matter which one really, but a loss in the CG would help out a little more. 6. USC: same as TCU. need a loss here. any loss will do for them. 8. Clemson: Say what you want about their schedule, but I don't want to be sitting there with 2 losses up against a 1 loss name brand like Clemson. So maybe the Cocks can help us out again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted November 26, 2022 Author Share Posted November 26, 2022 games with indirect bearing on our chances: Tennessee vs Vandy: Tennessee staying in the top 10 is HUGE. really need them to just blow the doors off of Vanderbilt. Florida State beating Florida was also pretty big. if teams 11-15 can lose to somehow sneak FSU up around #10, would be a very sweet bonus for us. Don't know if Ole Miss can stay in top 25 after yesterday, but that would help. But in reality, they are 8-0 against complete crap. 0-4 against teams with any sort of a pulse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted November 26, 2022 Author Share Posted November 26, 2022 while not have a big impact on our playoff chances, Penn State may have some say so in our bowl destination, so them dropping one to Michigan State would also be helpful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted November 26, 2022 Author Share Posted November 26, 2022 so the Iron Bowl is the interesting one for us. if we win out, it would help if the team from Tuscaloosa won and stayed in top 10. if we drop the SEC CG, then we need the unranked team to win that game to help lock us in to the Sugar Bowl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatchertiger Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 Yes if we lose to Georgia and they make CFP, Sugar takes highest ranked SEC team. If Gumps wins the iron bowl they could jump us in the rankings. If we don’t make CFP would love a rematch v. K State. This time we have a QB. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted November 27, 2022 Author Share Posted November 27, 2022 so after yesterday, bowl projections are as clear as mud. Playoffs are off the table, but the other 4 slots (and maybe a 5th) are all still possible. When the new rankings come out Tuesday, we'll almost assuredly be behind Alabama. Question is, do we fall past Tennessee? Clemson and Oregon losing eliminates the "buffer" we had between us and them. my gut: 1. UGA 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. USC 5. tOSU 6. Alabama 7. Tennessee 8. Penn St. 9. LSU 10. K-State so assuming this is the order when the committee reveals next rankings, my opinion of what needs to happen / likelihood of it happening for each possible bowl in upcoming posts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted November 27, 2022 Author Share Posted November 27, 2022 Sugar Bowl vs Big XII (likely K-State, outside possibility of TCU): highest ranked Big XII not in playoffs. TCU likely in playoffs, so it will be K-State. if K-State wins the Big XII title game, they may jump over the Frogs and take this spot. the best possible bowl still on the table for us, but also the least likely to happen. step one, we have to beat UGA. then somehow we need to be the highest ranked SEC team not in the playoffs. how does that happen? y'all don't want to know. Georgia AND Alabama will need to be in the playoffs and the committee will have to jump us back over Tennessee. I just don't see that happening. I think the committee will keep tOSU ahead of Alabama to help avoid the precedence of a 2 loss non-division champ getting in. meaning Alabama is most likely the SEC representative in the Sugar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted November 27, 2022 Author Share Posted November 27, 2022 Orange vs ACC (Clemson or UNC): Highest ranked ACC team not in playoffs, so will most likely be winner of ACC Championship game. opponent is highest ranked remaining non-playoff team between: Big Ten, Notre Dame, and SEC. so again, step one is beating Georgia. then Alabama would have to be left out of playoffs and in the Sugar. we will definitely be higher than Notre Dame who just lost their 4th game. i also think we will likely be ahead of Ped State. question is who is in front of who between us and Tennessee. we'd have an SEC title, but they'd have fewer losses and of course a lopsided win in our stadium. odds are definitely more in our favor for this one than the Sugar, but still not a very likely possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted November 27, 2022 Author Share Posted November 27, 2022 Cotton vs At Large (maybe Tulane)? depending on how far we fall, an agonizingly close loss to UGA may still keep us eligible for this one. easiest path would be: Georgia and Gumps both in playoffs. Tennessee in Sugar Ped State in Orange, and top 15 LSU in Cotton. honestly speaking this scenario probably needs the most very specific set of scenarios to play out. crazy thing is those very exact scenarios are actually not far fetched. It's just whether or not they all happen. again, my guess is that this just doesn't happen either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted November 27, 2022 Author Share Posted November 27, 2022 Citrus vs Big Ten (Purdue or Illinois): best B1G team not in a NY6 vs best SEC team not in NY6 assuming Michigan in playoffs, tOSU in Rose Bowl, Ped State in Orange Bowl. leaving us with either B1g CG loser Purdue, or maybe Illinois if they jump Purdue this is (or should be) our floor, and in all honesty the safest bet if you have to put money on a destination. a loss in SEC CG and this is all but guaranteed our destination. With a close win, this could still be where we end up. i just don't see us falling low enough for either of the Mississippi schools or a shockingly resurgent South Carolina to catch us in polls for this spot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted November 27, 2022 Author Share Posted November 27, 2022 so my "official" SEC Bowl guesses (be interesting to check back next week and see how i did) UGA - CFB Playoffs Alabama - Sugar Tennessee - Orange LSU - Citrus Mississippi State - Texas Bowl Ole Miss - Las Vegas Bowl So Carolina - ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly the Outback) Florida - Liberty Bowl Kentucky - Music City Bowl Arkansas - Gator Bowl Missouri - Birmingham Bowl 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houtiger Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Is S. Carolina the hottest team in the SEC the last couple of weeks? Looks like it. Rattler looks different. Consistency has been his problem. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatchertiger Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Selection process put out by the SEC for bowls: https://www.secsports.com/article/18165241/bowl-selection-process 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 Sugar with a win Citrus with a loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 11 hours ago, Nutriaitch said: Sugar with a win Citrus with a loss. Mike's Hard Lemonade or Screwdrivers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatchertiger Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Hopefully we will jump Gumps if we beat Georgia in SECCG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 11:22 AM, Nutriaitch said: Sugar Bowl vs Big XII (likely K-State, outside possibility of TCU): step one, we have to beat UGA. then somehow we need to be the highest ranked SEC team not in the playoffs. upon further digging, this is not an accurate statement. the SEC Champion still automatically goes to Sugar (if team and/or bowl are not part in the CFP). my confusion was due it being an extremely rare instance where the SEC champ would NOT be in the CFP. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatchertiger Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Quote FAQs: 1) Which SEC Team qualifies for the CFP? The winner of the SEC Championship Game automatically qualifies for a spot in the Sugar Bowl if that team is not selected to participate in the four-team playoff. If the SEC Champion is selected to participate in the four-team playoff it will play in the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl. The next highest-ranked SEC team not in the four-team playoff goes to the Sugar Bowl. https://www.secsports.com/article/18165241/bowl-selection-process 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 my official prediction: 1. UGA 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. tOSU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 12:27 PM, Nutriaitch said: so my "official" SEC Bowl guesses (be interesting to check back next week and see how i did) UGA - CFB Playoffs Alabama - Sugar Tennessee - Orange LSU - Citrus Mississippi State - Texas Bowl Ole Miss - Las Vegas Bowl So Carolina - ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly the Outback) Florida - Liberty Bowl Kentucky - Music City Bowl Arkansas - Gator Bowl Missouri - Birmingham Bowl im sticking with these picks too. anyone else want to make guesses before the selection show at 11? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishhead Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 UGA, Mich, tOSU, Gumps (Probably will be TCU but I like pissing Nootch off) LSU vs Purdue in outback Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dachsie Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1. UGA 2. Michigan 3. OSU 4. TCU LSU in citrus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, Fishhead said: UGA, Mich, tOSU, Gumps (Probably will be TCU but I like pissing Nootch off) LSU vs Purdue in outback interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishhead Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 You can't spell citrus without UT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutriaitch Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 19 minutes ago, Fishhead said: You can't spell citrus without UT Oranges are a type of citrus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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